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An innovative estimation of failure probability function based on conditional probability of parameter interval and augmented failure probability

Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2019
Abstract The failure probability function (FPF) is defined as a function of failure probability varying with the design parameters of random inputs, and it is usually estimated in advance to transform reliability-based design optimization into ordinary one.
Kaixuan Feng   +3 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Toward Sustainable Water Infrastructure: The State‐Of‐The‐Art for Modeling the Failure Probability of Water Pipes

Water Resources Research, 2023
Failures of water distribution networks (WDNs) are rising at an exponential rate, necessitating immediate attention. An effective way to reduce the failure rate is to develop accurate predictive models for the failure probability of water pipes, which ...
R. Taiwo   +2 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Time-variant system reliability analysis method for a small failure probability problem

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2021
This paper proposes a time-variant system reliability analysis method by combining multiple response Gaussian process (MRGP) and subset simulation (SS) to solve the small failure probability problem.
Hua-ming Qian   +2 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

A Bayesian surrogate constitutive model to estimate failure probability of elastomers

Mechanics of materials (Print), 2021
To calculate the uncertainty in the failure probability of elastomeric materials, a parametric and a non-parametric Bayesian-based stochastic constitutive model were evaluated.
Aref Ghaderi, V. Morovati, R. Dargazany
semanticscholar   +1 more source

AK-ARBIS: An improved AK-MCS based on the adaptive radial-based importance sampling for small failure probability

, 2020
The pivotal problem in reliability analysis is how to use a smaller number of model evaluations to get more accurate failure probabilities. To achieve this aim, an iterative method based on the Monte Carlo simulation and the adaptive Kriging (AK) model ...
Wanying Yun   +4 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

An efficient method for estimating failure probability of the structure with multiple implicit failure domains by combining Meta-IS with IS-AK

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2020
For efficiently estimating the failure probability of the structure with multiple implicit failure domains, a method abbreviated as Meta-IS-AK is proposed by combining the adaptive Kriging Meta model Importance Sampling (Meta-IS) and Importance Sampling ...
Xianming Zhu, Zhenzhou Lu, Wanying Yun
semanticscholar   +1 more source

A new reliability method for small failure probability problems by combining the adaptive importance sampling and surrogate models

, 2020
Reliability analysis for structural systems with multiple failure modes and expensive-to-evaluate simulations is challenging. In this paper, a new and efficient system reliability method is proposed based on the adaptive importance sampling and kriging ...
N. Xiao, Hongyou Zhan, Kai Yuan
semanticscholar   +1 more source

An efficient method based on AK-MCS for estimating failure probability function

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2020
The function of failure probability varying with distribution parameters of random inputs is referred as failure probability function (FPF), it is often required in reliability-based design optimization.
Chunyan Ling, Zhenzhou Lu, Xiaobo Zhang
semanticscholar   +1 more source

A failure probability evaluation method for collapse of drill-and-blast tunnels based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian network

, 2020
Collapse is one of the main hazards during tunnel construction by the drill-and-blast method. In order to evaluate the collapse risk and provide a basis for risk control, a failure probability evaluation method for collapse of drill-and-blast tunnels ...
Guo-hua Zhang   +4 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

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