Results 11 to 20 of about 139,006 (249)
Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters [PDF]
European Journal of Operational Research, 2022 Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series features for forecast combination has flourished.
Yanfei Kang +3 more
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Forecasting FOMC Forecasts [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018 (Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves.
S. Yanki Kalfa, Jaime Marquez
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Forecasting Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2006 Survey of forecasters, containing respondents' predictions of future values of growth, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables, receive a lot of attention in the financial press, from investors, and from policy makers. They are apparently widely perceived to provide useful information about agents' expectations.
Eric Ghysels, Jonathan H. Wright
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Using Forecasts of Forecasters to Forecast [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006 Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates ...
Nolte, Ingmar, Pohlmeier, Winfried
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Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts [PDF]
International Statistical Review, 2004 Summary Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts.
Tuljapurkar, Shripad +2 more
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Forecasting Profitability [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013 We use newly-available Indian panel data to estimate how the returns to planting-stage investments vary by rainfall realizations. We show that the forecasts significantly affect farmer investment decisions and that these responses account for a substantial fraction of the inter-annual variability in planting-stage investments, that the skill of the ...
Mark Rosenzweig, Christopher R. Udry
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FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE, 2019 AbstractAccurate forecasting is necessary to remain competitive in today's business environment. Forecast support systems are designed to aid forecasters in achieving high accuracy. However, studies have shown that people are distrustful of automated forecasters.
Dilek Önkal +2 more
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Examining Deep Learning Architectures for Crime Classification and Prediction
Forecasting, 2021 In this paper, a detailed study on crime classification and prediction using deep learning architectures is presented. We examine the effectiveness of deep learning algorithms in this domain and provide recommendations for designing and training deep ...
Panagiotis Stalidis +2 more
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AIP Advances, 2019 Non-hydrostatic stresses have a unique influence on materials. To understand the effect of non-hydrostatic stress on NaCl, one of the most widely used pressure calibrant in high-pressure experiments, the lattice constants, density, elastic modulus, Young’
Lei Liu, Longxing Yang, Li Yi, Hong Liu
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International Journal of Digital Earth, 2019 Surface radiative fluxes over landfast sea ice off Zhongshan station have been measured in austral spring for five springs between 2010 and 2015.
Lejiang Yu +9 more
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