Results 11 to 20 of about 524,481 (298)
Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters [PDF]
European Journal of Operational Research, 2022 Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series features for forecast combination has flourished.
Yanfei Kang +3 more
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Forecasting and Operational Research : A Review [PDF]
, 2008 From its foundation, operational research (OR) has made many substantial contributions to practical forecasting in organizations. Equally, researchers in other disciplines have influenced forecasting practice.
Crone, Sven F. +3 more
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Forecasting in airforce supply chains [PDF]
, 2011 Purpose – The UK Chinook helicopter is a utility and attack helicopter being operated by the Royal Air Force (RAF). Its versatile nature is of enormous importance to the strategic capability of the RAF's operations.
Ojiako, Udechukwu +3 more
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Using Forecasts of Forecasters to Forecast [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006 Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates ...
Nolte, Ingmar, Pohlmeier, Winfried
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Forecasting FOMC Forecasts [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018 (Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves.
S. Yanki Kalfa, Jaime Marquez
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Forecasting Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2006 Survey of forecasters, containing respondents' predictions of future values of growth, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables, receive a lot of attention in the financial press, from investors, and from policy makers. They are apparently widely perceived to provide useful information about agents' expectations.
Eric Ghysels, Jonathan H. Wright
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International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, 2022 We introduce the Forecasting Argumentation Framework (FAF), a novel argumentation framework for forecasting informed by recent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frameworks which empower (human or artificial) agents to argue over time with and about probability of scenarios, whilst flagging perceived irrationality in their behaviour ...
Irwin, Benjamin +2 more
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Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change [PDF]
, 2011 Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the current major forecasting controversy: global warming and the role of climate modelling in resolving this challenging topic.
Kourentzes, Nikolaos, +5 more
core +1 more source
Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies [PDF]
, 2014 Identifying the appropriate time series model to achieve good forecasting accuracy is a challenging task. We propose a novel algorithm that aims to mitigate the importance of model selection, while increasing accuracy.
Trapero Arenas, J.R +8 more
core +1 more source
Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions [PDF]
, 2013 Sales forecasting is increasingly complex due to many factors, such as product life cycles that have become shorter, more competitive markets and aggressive marketing.
Pedregal, Diego J. +7 more
core +1 more source