Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties
Geophysical Research Letters, 2019 Probabilistic estimates of climate system properties often rely on the comparison of model simulations to observed temperature records and an estimate of the internal climate variability.
Alex G. Libardoni +3 more
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The importance of internal climate variability in climate impact projections. [PDF]
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2022 Schwarzwald K, Lenssen N.
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Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe [PDF]
Nature CommunicationsEurope has experienced abnormal warming over the recent decades. Model-based studies highlight that multi-centennial internal variability of the North Atlantic can strongly affect European temperatures.
A. Al-Yaari +8 more
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Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability [PDF]
Biogeosciences, 2023 Earth system models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century with light-limited regions becoming more productive and nutrient-limited regions less productive.
G. W. Elsworth +4 more
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Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium [PDF]
The Cryosphere, 2021 Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability.
A. Huston +5 more
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Ensemble bias correction of climate simulations: preserving internal variability
Scientific Reports, 2021 Climate simulations often need to be adjusted (i.e., corrected) before any climate change impacts studies. However usual bias correction approaches do not differentiate the bias from the different uncertainties of the climate simulations: scenario ...
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar +2 more
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A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe [PDF]
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2023 Disentangling the effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends remains a key challenge with far-reaching implications.
C. Deser, A. S. Phillips
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Comparing climate time series – Part 2: A multivariate test [PDF]
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2021 This paper proposes a criterion for deciding whether climate model simulations are consistent with observations. Importantly, the criterion accounts for correlations in both space and time.
T. DelSole, M. K. Tippett
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Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Environmental Research: Climate, 2023 Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate ...
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser
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Wind speed stilling and its recovery due to internal climate variability [PDF]
Earth System Dynamics, 2021 Near-surface winds affect many processes on planet Earth, ranging from fundamental biological mechanisms such as pollination to man-made infrastructure that is designed to resist or harness wind.
J. Wohland, D. Folini, B. Pickering
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