The importance of internal climate variability in climate impact projections. [PDF]
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2022 Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may
Schwarzwald K, Lenssen N.
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Ensemble bias correction of climate simulations: preserving internal variability [PDF]
Scientific Reports, 2021 Climate simulations often need to be adjusted (i.e., corrected) before any climate change impacts studies. However usual bias correction approaches do not differentiate the bias from the different uncertainties of the climate simulations: scenario ...
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar +2 more
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Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties [PDF]
Geophysical Research Letters, 2019 Probabilistic estimates of climate system properties often rely on the comparison of model simulations to observed temperature records and an estimate of the internal climate variability.
Alex G. Libardoni +3 more
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Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability [PDF]
Biogeosciences, 2023 Earth system models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century with light-limited regions becoming more productive and nutrient-limited regions less productive.
G. W. Elsworth +4 more
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Identifying the early 2000s hiatus associated with internal climate variability. [PDF]
Sci Rep, 2018 AbstractThis study focuses on re-examining the early 2000s hiatus and the associated key components of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) using multiscale statistics for five well-known gridded surface temperature and two reanalysis datasets. The hiatus is characterized as a near-zero trend on the decadal scale corresponding to the maximum P ...
Dai XG, Wang P.
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Precipitation extremes and depth-duration-frequency under internal climate variability. [PDF]
Sci Rep, 2019 AbstractNatural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at adaptation-relevant scales and projection horizons.
Bhatia U, Ganguly AR.
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Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties. [PDF]
Sci Rep, 2018 AbstractThe Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the dominant mode of interannual variability over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and its future changes are projected to impact the climate and weather of Australia, East Africa, and Indonesia. Understanding the response of the IOD to a warmer climate has been largely limited to studies of individual coupled ...
Ng B, Cai W, Cowan T, Bi D.
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Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2023 Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the process of building realistic climate models and developing accurate future projections.
Shipra Jain +7 more
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Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Environmental Research: Climate, 2023 Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate ...
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser
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Anthropogenic climate change versus internal climate variability: impacts on snow cover in the Swiss Alps [PDF]
The Cryosphere, 2020 Snow is a sensitive component of the climate system. In many parts of the world, water stored as snow is a vital resource for agriculture, tourism and the energy sector.
F. Willibald +5 more
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