Results 81 to 90 of about 31,549 (236)
Narratives about the Macroeconomy
We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, we measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs ...
Andre, Peter +4 more
openaire +3 more sources
Bond Pricing and the Macroeconomy [PDF]
, 2013 This chapter reviews some of the academic literature that links nominal and real term structures with the macroeconomy. The main conclusion is that none of our models is consistent with basic properties of nominal yields. It is difficult to explain the average shape of the nominal yield curve, the variation of yields over time, and the predictability ...
openaire +3 more sources
Understanding expectations formation for hand‐to‐mouth households: lessons from the financial crisis
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, EarlyView.Abstract We study how poor hand‐to‐mouth and wealthy hand‐to‐mouth households in the United States form their expectations as compared to unconstrained households. To do so, we use monthly household data for the period 2005:2 to 2013:6 with information on the exact survey day for each household within a month.
Tufan Ekici +2 more
wiley +1 more source
The reaction of firms' expectations to monetary policy: evidence from Norwegian firms
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, EarlyView.Abstract An important transmission channel of monetary policy is the expectations channel. However, although this channel is important in theory, it has received limited attention in the empirical literature. One reason for this lack of focus is the scarcity of data on firms' expectations.
Jon Ellingsen
wiley +1 more source
Inventories, Liquidity, and the Macroeconomy [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008 It is widely believed in the literature that inventory fluctuations are destabilizing to the economy. This paper re-assesses this view by developing an analytically-tractable general-equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model's predictions are broadly consistent with the U.S. business cycle and
openaire +1 more source
A Simple Model of Geopolitical Risk and Sanctions
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks that trigger the imposition of sanctions tend to lower output and raise inflation in the sanctioned country. We develop a three‐equation small open economy New Keynesian model where GPR shocks are modeled as negative productivity shocks and sanctions manifest as import tariffs in response to GPR increases.
Vivien Lewis, Sirikorn Puangjit
wiley +1 more source
Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 1999 The relationship between oil price shocks and U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations advocated by Hamilton (1983) broke down in the 1980s amidst a new regime of highly volatile oil price movements. Several authors have argued that asymmetric and nonlinear transformations of oil prices restore that relationship and thus that the economy responds asymmetrically
openaire +1 more source
Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, Volume 51, Issue 2, June 2026.ABSTRACT This article explores the role of the COVID‐19 virus in changing healthcare policies in Wales and their effects on pandemic inequalities. It draws on the analysis of policy documents and key informant interviews with government and healthcare officials in Wales conducted during the cross‐European study on the varying impacts of pandemic ...
Sergei Shubin, Diana Beljaars
wiley +1 more source
Oil Futures Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Bond Risk Premiums
Journal of Futures Markets, Volume 46, Issue 5, Page 779-798, May 2026.ABSTRACT By decomposing West Texas Intermediate futures price changes into structural supply and demand shocks, this paper shows that dissecting the oil price significantly improves inflation forecasts. Empirically, demand‐driven shocks predict a negative real bond risk premium but a positive inflation risk premium; these opposing effects result in an ...
Haibo Jiang
wiley +1 more source
The Macroeconomic Policy Environment of Philippine Agricultural Performance [PDF]
A sustained healthy growth in agriculture requires an equally sustained healthy growth in the macroeconomy. It is towards this end that this article suggests policy directions for agriculture sector.
Intal, Ponciano Jr. S.
core +2 more sources