Results 111 to 120 of about 7,350 (154)

A Model of Overconfidence [PDF]

open access: possibleSSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
AbstractPeople use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging.
openaire   +2 more sources

Director overconfidence

Financial Management, 2015
AbstractWe examine overconfident chief executive officer (CEO) directors and find they attend more board meetings, are more likely to serve on the nominating or the compensation committee, have more independent directorships, and foster higher attendance rates on boards.
Beavers, Randy, Mobbs, Shawn
openaire   +1 more source

Learning to Be Overconfident

Review of Financial Studies, 1997
We develop a multiperiod market model describing both the process by which traders learn about their ability and how a bias in this learning can create overconfident traders. A trader in our model initially does not know his own ability. He infers this ability from his successes and failures.
Simon Gervais, Terrance Odean
openaire   +1 more source

BAYESIAN OVERCONFIDENCE.

Academy of Management Proceedings, 2007
We study three distinct measures of overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's performance, (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (3) overprecision in one's belief about private signals. A new set of experiments verifies a strong negative link between overestimation and overprecision that depends crucially on task difficulty ...
Healy, Paul J., Moore, Don A.
openaire   +1 more source

The overconfident newsvendor

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2017
Previous experimental work has shown that individuals make suboptimal decisions in newsvendor problems.
Yufei Ren   +2 more
openaire   +1 more source

Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach [PDF]

open access: yesJournal of Corporate Finance, 2017
A positive relation between overconfidence and investment provision has been theoretically justified and practically assumed in the literature, but has not been thoroughly investigated. We test and confirm this positive relation between direct measures of overconfidence in one's financial knowledge and choice of investment.
Elena Pikulina   +2 more
exaly   +3 more sources

Gender and overconfidence: are girls really overconfident?

Applied Economics Letters, 2011
Previous research finds that people are overconfident and that men are more overconfident than women. Using a very precise confidence measure, this article shows, however, that whereas boys are overconfident, girls are actually underconfident regarding their mathematics performance.
L. Dahlbom   +3 more
openaire   +1 more source

A study of expert overconfidence

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008
Overconfidence is one of the most common (and potentially severe) problems in expert judgment. To assess the extent of expert overconfidence, we analyzed a large data set on expert opinion compiled by Cooke and colleagues at the Technical University of Delft and elsewhere.
Shi-Woei Lin, Vicki M Bier
exaly   +2 more sources

Overconfidence? [PDF]

open access: possibleSSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better than average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average effect is problematic.
Benoît, Jean-Pierre, Dubra, Juan
openaire   +5 more sources

Overconfidence In Overconfidence

1991
Displays of “calibration curves” - very well replicated results of probability ratings on two-alternative knowledge questions - are often interpreted as an indication of human “overconfidence”. Several influential researchers see this phenomenon as another instance of selfserving and theory confirming biases. This interpretation of the empirical result
openaire   +1 more source

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