Results 111 to 120 of about 57,084 (288)

Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study [PDF]

Overconfidence can have important economic consequences, but has received little direct testing within the discipline. We test for overconfidence in forecasts of own absolute or relative performance in two unfamiliar experimental tasks.
Jeremy Clark, Lana Friesen
core  

A machine learning assisted method for rapidly annotating benthic megafauna in large volumes of marine imagery

Limnology and Oceanography: Methods, EarlyView.
Abstract Recent technological advancements have rapidly expanded our capacity for collecting image data in the marine environment, but processing images into meaningful ecological metrics remains a manual, time‐consuming, and biased process. This is particularly challenging with electro‐optical cabled imaging systems which generate images at a rate ...
Katharine T. Bigham, Ada Carter
wiley   +1 more source

Calibrating p‐values in ecology: a practical framework for integrating prior plausibility into statistical inference

Oikos, EarlyView.
Misinterpretation of p‐values, coupled with insufficient consideration of the prior plausibility of ecological hypotheses, leads to overconfident and often unreliable inference in ecological research. To address this issue, we present a methodological framework for p‐value calibration that reinterprets conventional p‐values through minimum Bayes ...
Rafael Dettogni Guariento, Anderson da Rocha Gripp, Adriano Caliman   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Construction and validation of an overconfidence scale in investment decisions

Future Business Journal
Existing studies that directly measure the three types of overconfidence—overprecision, overplacement, and overestimation—are largely exploratory, highlighting the need for further confirmatory research to establish robust overconfidence measures ...
Daniel Fonseca Costa, Cláudia Cardoso Soares, Bruno César de Melo Moreira, Adriano Olímpio Tonelli   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

Large‐language‐models for pediatric diagnosis: Performance evaluation using real‐world clinical notes from common and rare cases

Pediatric Investigation, EarlyView.
• Advanced large language models exhibited superior diagnostic accuracy compared to clinicians, particularly for rare diseases, with Claude‐3.5 Sonnet and o1‐preview demonstrating the highest consistency between query iterations. ABSTRACT Importance Rigorous evaluation of large language models (LLMs) in pediatric diagnosis using authentic clinical ...
Cristian Launes, Paula Esteller‐Cucala, Marina Alvarez‐Estape, Ivan Cano, Rosa Pino, Carla González‐Grado, Andrea Aldemira‐Liz, Javier Logroño, Carlos Mascías, Juanjo do‐Olmo, Julián Isla, Yolima Cossio, Francesc Garcia‐Cuyas   +12 more
wiley   +1 more source

Machine learning‐based predictive models versus traditional risk scores in hemodialysis patients with comorbid urolithiasis

Precision Medical Sciences, EarlyView.
Machine learning‐based predictive models outperform traditional risk scores in hemodialysis patients with comorbid urolithiasis by capturing nonlinear, dialysis‐specific interactions. These approaches enable more accurate prediction of stone recurrence, sepsis, hospitalization, and mortality, supporting personalized risk stratification and precision ...
Dipal Chaulagain, Muhammad Riaz, Mirza Muhammad Hadeed Khawar, Jawad Hameed, Malik Sohail Riaz   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Assessing the impact of model biases on subseasonal forecast skill

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Relaxation experiments where the nudging was performed towards bias‐corrected integrations of the same model display significantly improved skill at weeks 3 and 4, particularly in the northern extratropics. This indicates that there is a large potential for improving dynamical subseasonal forecasting skill by improved treatment of model biases.
Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda
wiley   +1 more source

Quantifying driving ensemble influence on operational convection‐permitting ensemble spread

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
By comparing statistics of precipitation patterns between a convection‐permitting ensemble and the global ensemble used to drive it, we investigate the conditions under which the convection‐permitting ensemble diverges from the evolution of the driving ensemble.
Adam Gainford, Suzanne L. Gray, Thomas H. A. Frame, Aurore N. Porson, Marco Milan   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Pricing strategy of traceable agricultural supply chain decisions considering retailer's overconfidence with government subsidy

Alexandria Engineering Journal
This study examines pricing strategies within a two-tier traceable agricultural product supply chain, encompassing both the retailer and the supplier.
Chongfeng Lan, Yaru Lan, Shengde Liu
doaj   +1 more source

Are we misdiagnosing ensemble forecast reliability? On the insufficiency of spread–error and rank‐based reliability metrics

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We demonstrate that the spread–error relationship, rank histogram, and continuous rank probability score reliability component can falsely indicate reliability under climatological variance biases, yielding ensemble members that are overly or insufficiently extreme.
Arlan Dirkson, Mark Buehner
wiley   +1 more source