Results 1 to 10 of about 432 (117)

Overprecision increases subsequent surprise [PDF]

PLoS ONE, 2020
Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment.
Don A Moore
exaly   +12 more sources

A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment [PDF]

Judgment and Decision Making, 2010
Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause.
Uriel Haran, Don A. Moore, Carey K. Morewedge   +2 more
doaj   +8 more sources

Simplified mental representations as a cause of overprecision

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2021
Abstract Although no consensus on the issue exists yet, some evidence indicates that people are typically overprecise in their inferences. In particular, subjective confidence intervals are often too narrow when compared with Bayesian ones. This paper uses a quasi-Bayesian theory and lab experiments to explore overprecision when people learn about ...
Marc Vorsatz
exaly   +11 more sources

The effect of challenging people’s fundamental assumptions about a task: Introducing uncertainty for reducing overprecision

Cogent Psychology, 2023
Most of us understand that our rationality is bounded by our cognitive limitations, knowledge, set of beliefs, etc. Generally, however, people are not sufficiently aware of their own bounded rationality and demonstrate overprecision vis-à-vis their ...
Nirit Yuviler-Gavish
exaly   +4 more sources

Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions

European Journal of Operational Research, 2023
zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Detlof von Winterfeldt, Valentina Ferretti, Gilberto Montibeller   +2 more
exaly   +6 more sources

Two Tales of Uncertainty: Calibrating Overprecision With Self-Regulated Entrepreneurial Learning

Strategic Change
ABSTRACT Entrepreneurial success strongly depends on decision‐making under uncertainty. Uncertainty is particularly pronounced when entrepreneurs are confronted with novel situations characterized by an absence of information.
Alexander Fust
exaly   +3 more sources

"Yes, we know!" (Over)confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs. [PDF]

PLoS ONE, 2018
Overconfidence has been reported to be a common bias among entrepreneurs and might be one cause of the high failure rates observed for new ventures.
Viktorija Ilieva, Thomas Brudermann, Ljubomir Drakulevski   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd [PDF]

Scientific Reports
How can people’s ability to make accurate estimations be boosted? Psychological research on the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd suggests that people’s judgments improve when they use a simple consider-the-opposite-strategy, dubbed—inspired by Enlightenment ...
Tamara Gomilsek, Ulrich Hoffrage, Julian N. Marewski   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Overconfidence over the lifespan [PDF]

Judgment and Decision Making, 2017
This research investigated how different forms of overconfidence correlate with age. Contrary to stereotypes that young people are more overconfident, the results provide little evidence that overestimation of one’s performance or overplacement of one’s ...
Julia P. Prims, Don A. Moore
doaj   +2 more sources

Same or Not the Same? Comparison Between Employees Prone to Overplacement, Overestimation, and Overprecision in Information Security

Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Proceedings of the
Overconfidence has been shown to have a detrimental effect on information security in enterprises. However, research on this systematic misperception of one’s abilities and skills is fragmented, and evidence on who is at risk of overconfidence is scarce.
FRANK, Muriel-Larissa, Wacker, Mara, Ranft, Lukas Manuel   +2 more
exaly   +4 more sources