Results 1 to 10 of about 145 (89)

A tale of two biases: Unpacking the relationship of overestimation and overprecision on firm performance

Strategic Management Journal
Abstract Research Summary Overconfidence is widely known to influence firm decision‐making. Yet there remains confusion regarding the concept because it comprises three key aspects: overplacement, overestimation, and overprecision. Using archival data, we employ a firm‐level overconfidence construct to simultaneously analyze the impacts of both ...
Mikael Samuelsson
exaly   +2 more sources

COGNITIVE SKILLS AND CONFIDENCE: INTERRELATIONS WITH OVERESTIMATION, OVERPLACEMENT AND OVERPRECISION

Bulletin of Economic Research, 2016
exaly  

Same or Not the Same? Comparison Between Employees Prone to Overplacement, Overestimation, and Overprecision in Information Security

Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Proceedings of the
Muriel Frank
exaly  

Overprecision in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Collabra: Psychology
Sandy Campbell, Don A Moore, Simone Moran   +2 more
exaly  

Development and validation of a scale to assess overconfidence in small business decision making

Journal of the International Council for Small Business
Daniel Fonseca Costa, Bruno Cesar De Melo Moreira, Adriano Olimpio Tonelli   +2 more
exaly  

Overprecision increases subsequent surprise [PDF]

PLoS ONE, 2020
Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment.
Don A Moore
exaly   +3 more sources

The effect of challenging people’s fundamental assumptions about a task: Introducing uncertainty for reducing overprecision

Cogent Psychology, 2023
Most of us understand that our rationality is bounded by our cognitive limitations, knowledge, set of beliefs, etc. Generally, however, people are not sufficiently aware of their own bounded rationality and demonstrate overprecision vis-à-vis their ...
Nirit Yuviler-Gavish
exaly   +3 more sources

"Yes, we know!" (Over)confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs. [PDF]

PLoS ONE, 2018
Overconfidence has been reported to be a common bias among entrepreneurs and might be one cause of the high failure rates observed for new ventures.
Viktorija Ilieva, Thomas Brudermann, Ljubomir Drakulevski   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources

A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment [PDF]

Judgment and Decision Making, 2010
Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause.
Uriel Haran, Don A. Moore, Carey K. Morewedge   +2 more
doaj   +4 more sources

Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd [PDF]

Scientific Reports
How can people’s ability to make accurate estimations be boosted? Psychological research on the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd suggests that people’s judgments improve when they use a simple consider-the-opposite-strategy, dubbed—inspired by Enlightenment ...
Tamara Gomilsek, Ulrich Hoffrage, Julian N. Marewski   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources