Results 1 to 10 of about 953 (161)

Overprecision increases subsequent surprise [PDF]

PLoS ONE, 2020
Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment.
Don A Moore
exaly   +11 more sources

A tale of two biases: Unpacking the relationship of overestimation and overprecision on firm performance [PDF]

Strategic Management Journal
AbstractResearch SummaryOverconfidence is widely known to influence firm decision‐making. Yet there remains confusion regarding the concept because it comprises three key aspects: overplacement, overestimation, and overprecision. Using archival data, we employ a firm‐level overconfidence construct to simultaneously analyze the impacts of both ...
Wayne G. Borchardt, Dan P. Lovallo, Mikael Samuelsson, Ayrton da Silva   +3 more
exaly   +7 more sources

A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment [PDF]

Judgment and Decision Making, 2010
Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause.
Uriel Haran, Don A. Moore, Carey K. Morewedge   +2 more
doaj   +8 more sources

The effect of challenging people’s fundamental assumptions about a task: Introducing uncertainty for reducing overprecision

Cogent Psychology, 2023
Most of us understand that our rationality is bounded by our cognitive limitations, knowledge, set of beliefs, etc. Generally, however, people are not sufficiently aware of their own bounded rationality and demonstrate overprecision vis-à-vis their ...
Nirit Yuviler-Gavish, Doron Faran, Mark N. Berman   +2 more
exaly   +5 more sources

Two Tales of Uncertainty: Calibrating Overprecision With Self‐Regulated Entrepreneurial Learning

Strategic Change
ABSTRACTEntrepreneurial success strongly depends on decision‐making under uncertainty. Uncertainty is particularly pronounced when entrepreneurs are confronted with novel situations characterized by an absence of information. While cognitive biases, such as overprecision, can have a negative impact on decision‐making processes by distorting information‐
Alexander Fust
exaly   +4 more sources

Simplified mental representations as a cause of overprecision

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2021
Although no consensus on the issue exists yet, some evidence indicates that people are typically overprecise in their inferences. In particular, subjective confidence intervals are often too narrow when compared with Bayesian ones. This paper uses a quasi-Bayesian theory and lab experiments to explore overprecision when people learn about the empirical
Marc Vorsatz
exaly   +4 more sources

Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions

European Journal of Operational Research, 2023
zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Valentina Ferretti, Gilberto Montibeller, Detlof Von Winterfeldt   +2 more
exaly   +5 more sources

Overprecision in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Academy of Management Proceedings, 2022
Every decision depends on a forecast of its consequences. We examine the calibration of the single longest and most complete forecasting project. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has, since 1968, collected predictions of key economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Here, we test the accuracy of those forecasts (n =
Sandy Campbell, Don A. Moore
semanticscholar   +3 more sources

Overprecision is a property of thinking systems

Psychological Review, 2019
Overprecision is the excessive certainty in the accuracy of one’s judgment. This paper proposes a new theory to explain it. The theory holds that overprecision in judgment results from neglect of all the ways in which one could be wrong. When there are many ways to be wrong, it can be difficult to consider them all.
D. Moore
semanticscholar   +6 more sources

Constraints on Thinking Cause Overprecision

, 2021
Overprecision--excessive faith in the accuracy of one's beliefs--may be the most consequential of the many biases in judgment. We offer a theory to explain the ubiquity of overprecision as a consequence of finite cognitive capacity. The individual who considers only a subset of all possibilities or hypotheses will come away excessively confident in ...
Don A Moore, Matthew Backus, Andrew T. Little   +2 more
semanticscholar   +4 more sources