Results 31 to 40 of about 179 (108)

Is overconfidence an individual difference?

Judgment and Decision Making
Some scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption.
Sophia Li, Randall Hale, Don A. Moore
doaj   +1 more source

Learning to be overprecise

Journal of Business Economics
Abstract We replicate and extend two studies on the dynamics of overconfidence among financial professionals. Using 20 years of data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey with over 40,000 individual forecasts of confidence intervals, we document that participants are overprecise during the entire time period with no evidence of learning on the
Christoph Merkle, Philipp Schreiber
openaire   +3 more sources

The taming of dating precision and accuracy in 14C-chronologies

Documenta Praehistorica
This report suggests that ongoing debates over Levantine Early Iron Age chronology and the dating of the Santorini eruption largely arise from Bayesian overprecision, as defined by Peter Steier and Werner Rom (2000).
Bernhard Weninger
doaj   +1 more source

Gauging Overprecision in LLMs: An Empirical Study

CoRR
Recently, overconfidence in large language models (LLMs) has garnered considerable attention due to its fundamental importance in quantifying the trustworthiness of LLM generation. However, existing approaches prompt the \textit{black box LLMs} to produce their confidence (\textit{verbalized confidence}), which can be subject to many biases and ...
Adil Bahaj, Hamed Rahimi, Mohamed Chetouani, Mounir Ghogho   +3 more
openaire   +2 more sources

CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Social Responsibility: A Micro‐CSR Perspective

Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Although research on micro‐level CSR has increasingly emphasized individual‐level antecedents, the role of CEO overconfidence has not been systematically integrated into the literature. To address this gap, a systematic literature review was undertaken of 62 studies on CEO overconfidence and CSR, revealing a mixed picture of positive, negative,
Jannis Kreinhop
wiley   +1 more source

Thinking orientation and overconfidence: a newsvendor study

Frontiers in Behavioral Economics
This study uses the newsvendor problem to investigate the correlations between thinking orientation, overconfidence, and economic outcome. We aim to shed light on possible interconnections between these variables and extend the existing conceptual models
Julian Wiesner, Ivan Đula, Andreas Größler   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Government support, regional well‐being, and the pivots of UK SMEs during a crisis

European Management Review, EarlyView.
Abstract Pivoting—a substantive transformation of the established business model (e.g., reformulation of goods, services, processes, or organizational methods in a new or significantly improved manner)—has emerged as a crisis response strategy of small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs).
Chau M. Chu, Bach Nguyen
wiley   +1 more source

Managerial Overoptimism and Discretionary Disclosure

Journal of Business Finance &Accounting, Volume 53, Issue 4, Page 1337-1356, August 2026.
ABSTRACT We examine the effect of managerial overoptimism on discretionary disclosure of subjective information, such as earnings forecasts. The market applies a discount upon disclosure to capture the possibility that the revealed subjective expectation is too optimistic.
Nikolaj Niebuhr Lambertsen, Matthias Lassak   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source

Nobody Knows Better: Examining the Link Between Overconfidence and Conspiracy Beliefs

Applied Cognitive Psychology, Volume 40, Issue 3, May/June 2026.
ABSTRACT This research explored the relationship between overconfidence and conspiracy beliefs. In Study 1, cross‐sectional analyses demonstrated that both overconfidence in general knowledge and in climate change knowledge were positively associated with climate change conspiracy beliefs.
Haiyan Wang, Jan‐Willem van Prooijen
wiley   +1 more source

Overplacement and Market Entry Decisions: A Modified Market Entry Game to Detect Nascent Entrepreneurs' Goal‐Motivated Reasoning Amid Radical Uncertainties

Strategic Change, Volume 35, Issue 2, Page 163-175, March 2026.
ABSTRACT Overplacement, a form of overconfidence characterized by the distorted belief that one is better than others, is considered a key driver of nascent entrepreneurship. The entrepreneurship literature typically associates entrepreneurial overplacement with negative outcomes and attributes it to erroneous information processing. The potential role
Zsófia Vörös, Olivér Béla Kovács, Papp Tamás   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source