Results 31 to 40 of about 953 (161)
Testing best practices to reduce the overconfidence bias in multi-criteria decision analysis [PDF]
, 2016 This paper explores the effectiveness of several methods to reduce the overconfidence bias when eliciting continuous probability distributions in the context of multicriteria decision analysis.
Ferretti, Valentina +3 more
core +2 more sources
The MUSCLES Treasury Survey. V. FUV Flares on Active and Inactive M Dwarfs [PDF]
, 2018 M dwarf stars are known for their vigorous flaring. This flaring could impact the climate of orbiting planets, making it important to characterize M dwarf flares at the short wavelengths that drive atmospheric chemistry and escape.
Brown, Alexander +12 more
core +3 more sources
The Expectation-Based Loss-Averse Newsvendor [PDF]
, 2012 We modify the classic single-period inventory management problem by assuming that the newsvendor is expectation-based loss averse according to Koszegi and Rabin (2006, 2007).
Herweg, Fabian
core +4 more sources
Journal of Business EconomicsAbstract We replicate and extend two studies on the dynamics of overconfidence among financial professionals. Using 20 years of data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey with over 40,000 individual forecasts of confidence intervals, we document that participants are overprecise during the entire time period with no evidence of learning on the
Christoph Merkle, Philipp Schreiber
openaire +3 more sources
How might teachers enable self-confidence? A review study [PDF]
, 2013 In the context of learner-centred learning and curricular reform, self-confidence is invoked as an important construct. However, there is no easily available research-informed guidance on what self-confidence means for the professional teacher.
MacLellan, Effie
core +1 more source
Partially Identified Prevalence Estimation under Misclassification using the Kappa Coefficient [PDF]
, 2010 We discuss a new strategy for prevalence estimation in the presence of misclassification. Our method is applicable when misclassification probabilities are unknown but independent replicate measurements are available.
Augustin, Thomas +2 more
core +1 more source
Disentangling "Bayesian brain" theories of autism spectrum disorder
medRxiv, 2022 Background: Bayesian theories of perception have provided a variety of alternative mechanistic explanations for autistic symptoms, including (1) overprecise sensations, (2) imprecise priors, (3) inflexible priors, and (4) altered hierarchical learning ...
M. Schneebeli +8 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Dynamic nonlinear pricing: Biased expectations, inattention, and bill shock [PDF]
, 2012 Recent research highlights the importance of biased expectations and inattention for nonlinear pricing in dynamic environments. Findings are: (1) Three-part tariffs, such as cellular service contracts, exploit consumer overconfidence.
Grubb, Michael D.
core +1 more source
Government support, regional well‐being, and the pivots of UK SMEs during a crisis
European Management Review, EarlyView.Abstract Pivoting—a substantive transformation of the established business model (e.g., reformulation of goods, services, processes, or organizational methods in a new or significantly improved manner)—has emerged as a crisis response strategy of small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs).
Chau M. Chu, Bach Nguyen
wiley +1 more source
Default or reactance? Identity priming effects on overconfidence in Germany and Japan [PDF]
, 2015 This experimental study measures three types of overconfidence in the decision behavior of participants from Germany and Japan. In the first stage of the experiment subjects completed a Raven Progressive Matrices test and subsequently assessed their test
Duttle, Kai, Shichijo, Tatsuhiro
core