A tale of two biases: Unpacking the relationship of overestimation and overprecision on firm performance [PDF]
Strategic Management JournalAbstract Research Summary Overconfidence is widely known to influence firm decision‐making. Yet there remains confusion regarding the concept because it comprises three key aspects: overplacement, overestimation, and overprecision.
Mikael Samuelsson
exaly +5 more sources
Constraints on thinking cause overprecision
, 2021 Constructing beliefs about the world usually requires simplifying assumptions. We analyze the beliefs of agents who make reasonable assumptions to model a complex situation and who make predictions conditional on those assumptions. Our theory identifies tight connections between model uncertainty (the extent to which different models lead to different ...
Don A Moore +2 more
core +4 more sources
Overprecision is a property of thinking systems
Psychological Review, 2019 Overprecision is the excessive certainty in the accuracy of one’s judgment. This paper proposes a new theory to explain it. The theory holds that overprecision in judgment results from neglect of all the ways in which one could be wrong. When there are many ways to be wrong, it can be difficult to consider them all.
Moore, Don A
core +7 more sources
Overprecision in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Academy of Management Proceedings, 2022 Every decision depends on a forecast of its consequences. We examine the calibration of the single longest and most complete forecasting project. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has, since 1968, collected predictions of key economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Here, we test the accuracy of those forecasts (n =
Sandy Campbell, Don A. Moore
openaire +2 more sources
Overprecision and (Ir)rational Inattention
Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers ...
Bosch-Rosa, Ciril +2 more
openaire +3 more sources
Predicting Overprecision in Range Estimation. [PDF]
, 2016 Overprecision (overconfidence in interval estimation) is a biaswith clear implications for economic outcomes in industriesreliant on forecasting possible ranges for future prices andunknown states of nature - such as mineral and petroleumexploration. Prior research has shown the ranges peopleprovide are too narrow given the knowledge they have – thatis,
Kaesler, Matthew +2 more
core +4 more sources
Overprecision in Estimates of Physical Constants
Science depends on accurate estimates—and on honest assessments of how uncertain those estimates are. This study shows that scientists often express too much confidence in their reported values of physical constants, such as the charge of an electron or the speed of light.
Don A Moore, Mitchell Chan
core +3 more sources
Hand Dysfunction After Intervention via Distal Versus Conventional Transradial Access: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials. [PDF]
Clin CardiolClinical Cardiology, Volume 49, Issue 6, June 2026.
Ishtiaq F.
europepmc +2 more sources
Comparative Efficacy of Bone Defect Filler Strategies Following Lesion Debridement for Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis. [PDF]
Orthop SurgAfter screening 2046 records, 18 eligible studies were included, comprising 10 RCTs and 8 NCTs, with a total of 1176 patients and 1284 hips. Fourteen filler strategies were analyzed. ABSTRACT Objective This study aimed to systematically review and compare the clinical and radiographic outcomes of different bone defect filler materials following lesion ...
Miao Z +8 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Bayesian Modeling of Bovine Tuberculosis Prevalence for Enhanced Estimation and Control in Intensive Dairy Farms: A Longitudinal Decision-Support Tools for Veterinarians and Policymakers. [PDF]
Vet Med IntAccurate prevalence estimation is crucial for effective bovine tuberculosis (bTB) control, as unreliable data often gives rise to strategic failures, misallocation of resources, and loss of stakeholder trust. In an epidemiological study, obtaining true prevalence (Tp) requires accounting for misclassification and measurement errors inherent in ...
Abera B +4 more
europepmc +2 more sources