Results 11 to 20 of about 953 (161)
"Yes, we know!" (Over)confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs. [PDF]
PLoS ONE, 2018 Overconfidence has been reported to be a common bias among entrepreneurs and might be one cause of the high failure rates observed for new ventures.
Viktorija Ilieva +2 more
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Overconfidence over the lifespan [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2017 This research investigated how different forms of overconfidence correlate with age. Contrary to stereotypes that young people are more overconfident, the results provide little evidence that overestimation of one’s performance or overplacement of one’s ...
Julia P. Prims, Don A. Moore
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Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd [PDF]
Scientific ReportsHow can people’s ability to make accurate estimations be boosted? Psychological research on the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd suggests that people’s judgments improve when they use a simple consider-the-opposite-strategy, dubbed—inspired by Enlightenment ...
Tamara Gomilsek +2 more
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Gauging Overprecision in LLMs: An Empirical Study
arXiv.orgRecently, overconfidence in large language models (LLMs) has garnered considerable attention due to its fundamental importance in quantifying the trustworthiness of LLM generation. However, existing approaches prompt the \textit{black box LLMs} to produce their confidence (\textit{verbalized confidence}), which can be subject to many biases and ...
Bahaj, Adil +3 more
openaire +3 more sources
Is overconfidence an individual difference?
Judgment and Decision MakingSome scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption.
Sophia Li, Randall Hale, Don A. Moore
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Construction and validation of an overconfidence scale in investment decisions
Future Business JournalExisting studies that directly measure the three types of overconfidence—overprecision, overplacement, and overestimation—are largely exploratory, highlighting the need for further confirmatory research to establish robust overconfidence measures ...
Daniel Fonseca Costa +3 more
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Thinking orientation and overconfidence: a newsvendor study
Frontiers in Behavioral EconomicsThis study uses the newsvendor problem to investigate the correlations between thinking orientation, overconfidence, and economic outcome. We aim to shed light on possible interconnections between these variables and extend the existing conceptual models
Julian Wiesner +2 more
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Estimation of effective number of breeders and effective population size in an abundant and heavily exploited marine teleost. [PDF]
Evol ApplAbstract Obtaining reliable estimates of the effective number of breeders (Nb) and generational effective population size (Ne) for fishery‐important species is challenging because they are often iteroparous and highly abundant, which can lead to bias and imprecision.
Bertram A +7 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Lexicon Philosophicum, 2021 Overconfidence occurs when persons overestimate their abilities in general or with respect to a specific task/context. This bias causes systematic errors, yet it is found in 70% of tested individuals, suggesting that this trait gives an adaptive ...
Gilberto Corbellini
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Deliberation in Guesstimation. [PDF]
Cogn SciAbstract In many real‐world settings, people often have to make judgments with incomplete information. Estimating unknown quantities without using precise quantitative modeling and data is called guesstimation, which is often needed in forecasting settings.
Salikutluk V, Jäkel F.
europepmc +2 more sources