Results 21 to 30 of about 953 (161)

Overconfidence in the Market for Lemons [PDF]

, 2011
We extend Akerlof ’s (1970) “Market for Lemons†by assuming that some buyers are overconfident. Buyers in our model receive a noisy signal about the quality of the good that is at display for sale. Overconfident buyers do not update according to Bayes’
Herweg, Fabian, Müller, Daniel
core   +5 more sources

Methods for Population Adjustment with Limited Access to Individual Patient Data: A Review and Simulation Study [PDF]

, 2021
Population-adjusted indirect comparisons estimate treatment effects when access to individual patient data is limited and there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers.
Baio, Gianluca, Heath, Anna, Remiro-Azócar, Antonio   +2 more
core   +2 more sources

Quantifying noise in survey expectations

Quantitative Economics, Volume 14, Issue 2, Page 609-650, May 2023., 2023
Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either bias (systematic mistakes) or noise (unsystematic mistakes). We develop a framework for quantifying the level of noise in survey expectations. The method is based on the insight that theoretical models of expectation formation predict
Artūras Juodis, Simas Kučinskas
wiley   +1 more source

Distribution characteristics of pulverized coal and stress–gas pressure–temperature response laws in coal and gas outburst under deep mining conditions

Energy Science &Engineering, Volume 10, Issue 7, Page 2205-2223, July 2022., 2022
1. A coal and gas outburst experiment under high‐stress condition was carried out. 2. S–GP–T response laws surrounding the burst hole were evaluated. 3. The burst coal distribution characteristics were obtained. Abstract Deep mining will increase the likelihood of coal and gas outburst accidents and do harm to the safety of coal mining.
Bo Zhao, Guangcai Wen, Qianwei Ma, Haitao Sun, Fazhi Yan, Jun Nian   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Overconfidence Across Cultures

Collabra: Psychology, 2018
Overconfidence is a robust cognitive bias with far-reaching implications, but prior research on cultural differences in overconfidence has been conflicting.
Don A. Moore, Amelia S. Dev, Ekaterina Y. Goncharova   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Overconfidence in the Markets for Lemons [PDF]

, 2013
We extend Akerlof (1970)’s “Market for Lemons” by assuming that some buyers are overconfident. Buyers in our model receive a noisy signal about the quality of the good that is on display for sale.
Herweg, Fabian, Müller, Daniel
core   +2 more sources

Climate scientists’ wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain [PDF]

, 2019
The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide
Juanchich, M., Løhre, E., Shepherd, T. G., Sirota, M., Teigen, K. H.   +4 more
core   +3 more sources

Overconfidence, optimism and entrepreneurship [PDF]

, 2018
Overconfidence is one of the alleged drivers for market entry. However, establishing its effect is challenging and much of the existing entrepreneurship literature confusingly conflates overconfidence with optimism. In the present study, we use validated
Bernoster, I. (Indy), Rietveld, C.A. (Niels), Thurik, A.R. (Roy), Torrès, O. (Olivier)   +3 more
core   +2 more sources

Joy leads to overconfidence, and a simple countermeasure [PDF]

, 2015
Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real-life domains, with often far-reaching consequences. This study identifies a mechanism that can cause overconfidence and demonstrates a simple, effective ...
A Bechara, A Galasso, A Gerrards-Hesse, A Koriat, A Koriat, AC Cooper, AE Bernardo, AM Goel, AM Isen, AM Isen, AM Isen, AM Isen, B Barber, B Fischhoff, B Kuvaas, BD Pulford, C Bengtsson, C Camerer, C Heath, C Holt, C Holt, C McFarland, CM Allwood, CM Allwood, CO Fritz, CR Colvin, CWM Yeung, D Benton, D Budescu, D Cesarini, D Cesarini, D Dunning, D Dunning, D Hirshleifer, D Kahneman, D Kahneman, D Moore, DA Moore, DD Johnson, DR Proffitt, E Diener, E Hoelzl, E Kirchler, E Merrow, ES Berner, F Faul, GH Bower, GJ Gorn, GJ Kuhn, GL Clore, GR Norman, HR Arkes, J Cohen, J Golec, J Ifcher, JB Soll, JB Soll, JE Russo, JL Freedman, JL Kurtz, JP Forgas, JS Lerner, JW Ely, K Dunbar, K Gasper, K Gasper, K Kadous, K White, L Christensen, LW Busenitz, M Seligman, MF Scheier, N Schwarz, ND Weinstein, P Blavatskyy, P Brañas-Garza, P Ekman, P Koellinger, P Koellinger, P Schaefer, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Philipp Koellinger, R Colvin, R Davidson, R Schwarzer, R Westermann, RA Cummins, RE Thayer, RP Larrick, S DellaVigna, S Gosling, S Hamann, S Taylor, S Vautier, SE Maxwell, SE Taylor, SE Taylor, SH Ahmed, T Fu, T Åstebro, T Åstebro, Theresa Treffers, U Haran, U Haran, U Hoffrage, U Malmendier, U Malmendier, U Simonsohn, V Smith, Y Ren   +109 more
core   +4 more sources

Research on Overconfidence in Decision-Making for the Capacity Recovery of Damaged Power Systems

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2014
This paper studies the influence of two types of overconfident behavior, overestimation and overprecision, on decision of capacity recovery when power system’s critical capacity is seriously damaged.
Xing Bao
doaj   +1 more source