Results 21 to 30 of about 179 (108)
Overconfidence over the lifespan [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2017 This research investigated how different forms of overconfidence correlate with age. Contrary to stereotypes that young people are more overconfident, the results provide little evidence that overestimation of one’s performance or overplacement of one’s ...
Julia P. Prims, Don A. Moore
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Estimation of effective number of breeders and effective population size in an abundant and heavily exploited marine teleost. [PDF]
Evol ApplAbstract Obtaining reliable estimates of the effective number of breeders (Nb) and generational effective population size (Ne) for fishery‐important species is challenging because they are often iteroparous and highly abundant, which can lead to bias and imprecision.
Bertram A +7 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Deliberation in Guesstimation. [PDF]
Cogn SciAbstract In many real‐world settings, people often have to make judgments with incomplete information. Estimating unknown quantities without using precise quantitative modeling and data is called guesstimation, which is often needed in forecasting settings.
Salikutluk V, Jäkel F.
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Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Proceedings of theOverconfidence has been shown to have a detrimental effect on information security in enterprises. However, research on this systematic misperception of one’s abilities and skills is fragmented, and evidence on who is at risk of overconfidence is scarce.
FRANK, Muriel-Larissa +2 more
exaly +4 more sources
Lexicon Philosophicum, 2021 Overconfidence occurs when persons overestimate their abilities in general or with respect to a specific task/context. This bias causes systematic errors, yet it is found in 70% of tested individuals, suggesting that this trait gives an adaptive ...
Gilberto Corbellini
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Constraints on thinking cause overprecision
, 2021 Constructing beliefs about the world usually requires simplifying assumptions. We analyze the beliefs of agents who make reasonable assumptions to model a complex situation and who make predictions conditional on those assumptions. Our theory identifies tight connections between model uncertainty (the extent to which different models lead to different ...
Don A Moore +2 more
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Overprecision in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Academy of Management Proceedings, 2022 Every decision depends on a forecast of its consequences. We examine the calibration of the single longest and most complete forecasting project. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has, since 1968, collected predictions of key economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Here, we test the accuracy of those forecasts (n =
Sandy Campbell, Don A. Moore
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Overconfidence Across Cultures
Collabra: Psychology, 2018 Overconfidence is a robust cognitive bias with far-reaching implications, but prior research on cultural differences in overconfidence has been conflicting.
Don A. Moore +2 more
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Overprecision is a property of thinking systems
Psychological Review, 2019 Overprecision is the excessive certainty in the accuracy of one’s judgment. This paper proposes a new theory to explain it. The theory holds that overprecision in judgment results from neglect of all the ways in which one could be wrong. When there are many ways to be wrong, it can be difficult to consider them all.
openaire +5 more sources
Research on Overconfidence in Decision-Making for the Capacity Recovery of Damaged Power Systems
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2014 This paper studies the influence of two types of overconfident behavior, overestimation and overprecision, on decision of capacity recovery when power system’s critical capacity is seriously damaged.
Xing Bao
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