Results 21 to 30 of about 432 (117)

Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions

, 2022
Formal expert elicitation is a widely used method for quantifying uncertain variables in decision and risk analysis. When estimating uncertain variables, experts and laypeople exhibit overprecision, meaning that the ranges of their estimates are too ...
Detlof von Winterfeldt (7197905), Valentina Ferretti (3261015), Gilberto Montibeller (1257105)   +2 more
core   +6 more sources

Overconfidence

Lexicon Philosophicum, 2021
Overconfidence occurs when persons overestimate their abilities in general or with respect to a specific task/context. This bias causes systematic errors, yet it is found in 70% of tested individuals, suggesting that this trait gives an adaptive ...
Gilberto Corbellini
doaj   +1 more source

Incentives and Overprecision (VIL)

, 2022
This is the pre-registration for the project Incentives and Overprecision (VIL)
Don A. Moore, Sandy Campbell
core   +1 more source

Estimation of effective number of breeders and effective population size in an abundant and heavily exploited marine teleost. [PDF]

Evol Appl
Abstract Obtaining reliable estimates of the effective number of breeders (Nb) and generational effective population size (Ne) for fishery‐important species is challenging because they are often iteroparous and highly abundant, which can lead to bias and imprecision.
Bertram A, Bell J, Brauer C, Fairclough D, Hamer P, Sandoval-Castillo J, Wellenreuther M, Beheregaray LB.   +7 more
europepmc   +2 more sources

Overconfidence Across Cultures

Collabra: Psychology, 2018
Overconfidence is a robust cognitive bias with far-reaching implications, but prior research on cultural differences in overconfidence has been conflicting.
Don A. Moore, Amelia S. Dev, Ekaterina Y. Goncharova   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Deliberation in Guesstimation. [PDF]

Cogn Sci
Abstract In many real‐world settings, people often have to make judgments with incomplete information. Estimating unknown quantities without using precise quantitative modeling and data is called guesstimation, which is often needed in forecasting settings.
Salikutluk V, Jäkel F.
europepmc   +2 more sources

Research on Overconfidence in Decision-Making for the Capacity Recovery of Damaged Power Systems

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2014
This paper studies the influence of two types of overconfident behavior, overestimation and overprecision, on decision of capacity recovery when power system’s critical capacity is seriously damaged.
Xing Bao
doaj   +1 more source

Is overconfidence an individual difference?

Judgment and Decision Making
Some scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption.
Sophia Li, Randall Hale, Don A. Moore
doaj   +1 more source

Learning to be overprecise

Journal of Business Economics
Abstract We replicate and extend two studies on the dynamics of overconfidence among financial professionals. Using 20 years of data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey with over 40,000 individual forecasts of confidence intervals, we document that participants are overprecise during the entire time period with no evidence of learning on the
Christoph Merkle, Philipp Schreiber
openaire   +3 more sources

The taming of dating precision and accuracy in 14C-chronologies

Documenta Praehistorica
This report suggests that ongoing debates over Levantine Early Iron Age chronology and the dating of the Santorini eruption largely arise from Bayesian overprecision, as defined by Peter Steier and Werner Rom (2000).
Bernhard Weninger
doaj   +1 more source