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Lexicon Philosophicum, 2021 Overconfidence occurs when persons overestimate their abilities in general or with respect to a specific task/context. This bias causes systematic errors, yet it is found in 70% of tested individuals, suggesting that this trait gives an adaptive ...
Gilberto Corbellini
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The trouble with overconfidence. [PDF]
Psychological Review, 2007 This paper presents a reconciliation of the three distinct ways in which the research literature has defined overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one’s actual performance, (2) overplacement of one’s performance relative to others, and (3) excessive precision in one’s beliefs.
Don A. Moore, Paul J. Healy
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The evolution of overconfidence [PDF]
Nature, 2011 Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve ...
Johnson, Dominic D. P., Fowler, James H.
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Overconfidence and Timing of Entry [PDF]
Games, 2020 We analyze the impact of overconfidence on the timing of entry in markets, profits, and welfare using an extension of the quantity commitment game. Players have private information about costs, one player is overconfident, and the other one rational. We find that for slight levels of overconfidence and intermediate cost asymmetries, there is a unique ...
Santos Pinto, Luis, Pires, Tiago
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Managerial Overconfidence and Earning Forecast Errors [PDF]
پژوهشهای تجربی حسابداری, 2018 In accounting literature, earnings forecast accuracy has always been very important to financial statement users. There are many factors influencing earnings forecasts, including overconfidence that has an important role in earning forecasts accuracy ...
Sasan Merani, Mansour Taheri
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Financial Innovation, 2023 Overconfidence behavior, one form of positive illusion, has drawn considerable attention throughout history because it is viewed as the main reason for many crises.
Esra Alp Coşkun +2 more
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Mapping knowledge domains on managerial overconfidence
Heliyon, 2022 Managerial overconfidence issues have attracted extant research interest given its influence on corporate strategy and operating performance with the growing development of modern behavioural economics.
Shiliang Xia, Jingjing Duan
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Frontiers in Psychology, 2022 At present, there is a common overinvestment behavior among listed companies in various countries, which seriously reduces the overall resource allocation efficiency of the market.
Michael So
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Behavioral discount rates for entrepreneurs: the effect of overconfidence [PDF]
Journal of Economics Finance and Administrative SciencePurposeIn this study, we aim to show the effect of entrepreneurs’ overconfidence on their required rates of return. Accordingly, we show the implication of two levels of overconfidence: moderate and excessive.Design/methodology/approachWe use a ...
Samuel Arturo Mongrut +2 more
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Blind following in the boardroom: Evidence of overconfidence contagion in Chinese listed companies
Borsa Istanbul Review, 2022 Of many psychological biases, overconfidence has been described as one of the most powerful. Few studies have focused on collective overconfidence in team decision-making by boards of directors since boards are typically “black boxes”.
Chao Liang, Bai Liu, Yin-Che Weng
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