Results 71 to 80 of about 2,386,323 (274)

Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging [PDF]

European Economic Review, 2013
Accurate measurements of probabilistic beliefs have become increasingly important both in practice and in academia. Introduced by statisticians in the 1950s to promote truthful reports in simple environments, Proper Scoring Rules (PSR) are now arguably the most popular incentivized mechanisms to elicit an agent’s beliefs.
Armantier, Olivier, Treich, Nicolas
openaire   +9 more sources

Chronobiology of Cancer: How Aging Fuels Oncogenesis at the Molecular Level

Aging and Cancer, EarlyView.
This graphical abstract illustrates the key biological pathways linking aging with cancer development and progression. In the upper left, cumulative exposure to ultraviolet radiation, toxins, and reactive oxygen species (ROS) causes DNA damage and genomic instability, whereas age‐related decline in repair mechanisms, such as ATM/ATR, BER, and NER ...
Anu Singh, Aroonima Misra, Sufian Zaheer
wiley   +1 more source

Proper scoring rules in epistemic decision theory [PDF]

, 2020
Epistemic decision theory (EpDT) aims to defend a variety of epistemic norms in terms of their facilitation of epistemic ends. One of the most important components of EpDT is known as a scoring rule (used to measure inaccuracies of credences).
WANG, Maomei
core   +1 more source

Distribution‐Based Model Evaluation and Diagnostics: Elicitability, Propriety, and Scoring Rules for Hydrograph Functionals

Water Resources Research
Distribution forecasts P over future quantities or events are routinely made in hydrology but usually traded for a (likelihood‐weighted) mean or median prediction to accommodate error measures or scoring functions such as the mean absolute error or mean ...
Jasper A. Vrugt
doaj   +1 more source

Cognitive and Neuroimaging Divergence Between Juvenile and Adult FUS Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Objective Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive motor neuron degeneration. Fused in sarcoma (FUS)‐associated juvenile ALS (jALS) represents a distinct and aggressive subgroup with rapid deterioration and poor prognosis.
Alexandra V. Jürs, Marcel Naumann, Annaliis Lehto, Hanna Schön, Jens Kurth, Johannes Prudlo, Andreas Hermann, Elisabeth Kasper   +7 more
wiley   +1 more source

Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Domination Results for Proper Scoring Rules [PDF]

, 2022
Scoring rules measure the deviation between a probabilistic forecast and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast p by the lights of p is strictly better than ...
Pruss, Alexander R.
core   +1 more source

Rethinking crash risk prediction: classification versus probabilistic perspectives

European Transport Research Review
In road traffic safety research, crash data is a major source of empirical evidence, which often involves discrete outcomes like crash occurrence and injury severity.
Yingheng Zhang
doaj   +1 more source

Bi‐ and Mono‐Allelic RFC1 Expansion in a North American Cohort With Idiopathic Axonal Neuropathy

Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Objective RFC1 biallelic repeat expansion is increasingly recognized as a cause of chronic idiopathic axonal polyneuropathy (CIAP), but it remains challenging to know who to test. This study aims to determine the prevalence of biallelic and monoallelic RFC1 expansions and their corresponding neuropathy phenotypes in CIAP patients and identify ...
Amro M. Stino, Lavanya Muthukumar, Evan L. Reynolds, Peter Todd, Sinem Ovunc, Sheng Chih Jin, Zitian Tang, Simone Thomas, PNRR Study Group, Ahmet Höke, Brian C. Callaghan, Sarah Berth, Vinay Chaudhry, David Cornblath, Leana Doherty, Lindsey Hayes, Hristelina Ilieva, Thomas Lloyd, Mohammad Khoshnoodi, Brett McCray, Brett Morrison, Bipasha Mukherjee‐Clavin, Lyle Ostrow, Michael Polydefkis, Ricardo Roda, Charlotte Sumner   +25 more
wiley   +1 more source

Natural Frequencies of Levodopa‐Induced Dyskinesia in Parkinson's Disease

Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Objectives Abnormal involuntary movements, known as dyskinesias, are common complications of levodopa treatment in patients with Parkinson's disease and can significantly impair quality of life. The underlying pathophysiology remains unclear, and current therapeutic options are limited.
Ioannis U. Isaias, Federica Avantaggiato, Gianni Pezzoli, Andrea Canessa   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Tailored proper scoring rules elicit decision weights [PDF]

, 2020
Proper scoring rules are scoring methods that incentivize honest reporting of subjective probabilities, where an agent strictly maximizes his expected score by reporting his true belief.
Arthur Carvalho
core