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Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities
Decision Analysis, 2011 When scoring rules were first widely used, they were developed as a way to measure the accuracy of probability forecasts ex post. Ex ante, proper scoring rules encourage honestly reported and sharper probabilities, both of which increase the forecaster's expected score. Most applications utilize standard off-the-shelf scoring rules.
Victor Richmond R Jose +1 more
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Should Scoring Rules Be “Effective”?
Management Science, 1985 A scoring rule is a reward function for eliciting or evaluating forecasts expressed as discrete or continuous probability distributions. A rule is strictly proper if it encourages the forecaster to state his true subjective probabilities, and effective if it is associated with a metric on the set of probability distributions. Recently, the property of
Robert F Nau
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The scoring rules in an endogenous election [PDF]
Social Choice and Welfare, 2005 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Bernardo Moreno, M. Socorro Puy
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Mathematical Social Sciences, 2012
zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Wulf Gaertner, Yongsheng Xu 0003
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zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Wulf Gaertner, Yongsheng Xu 0003
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Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2015
A scoring rule is a device for eliciting and assessing probabilistic forecasts from an agent. When dealing with continuous outcome spaces, and absent any prior insights into the structure of the agent's beliefs, the rule should allow for a flexible reporting interface that can accurately represent complicated, multi-modal distributions.
Erik Peter Zawadzki, Sébastien Lahaie
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A scoring rule is a device for eliciting and assessing probabilistic forecasts from an agent. When dealing with continuous outcome spaces, and absent any prior insights into the structure of the agent's beliefs, the rule should allow for a flexible reporting interface that can accurately represent complicated, multi-modal distributions.
Erik Peter Zawadzki, Sébastien Lahaie
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An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules
Decision Analysis, 2016We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either measuring the accuracy of forecasts or for inducing honest reporting of private information within a certain context.
Arthur Carvalho
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Probabilistic Coherence and Proper Scoring Rules [PDF]
IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2009 LaTeX2, 15 ...
Elliott H. Lieb +2 more
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Choosing a Strictly Proper Scoring Rule
Decision Analysis, 2013Strictly proper scoring rules, including the Brier score and the logarithmic score, are standard metrics by which probability forecasters are assessed and compared. Researchers often find that one's choice of strictly proper scoring rule has minimal impact on one's conclusions, but this conclusion is typically drawn from a small set of popular rules ...
Edgar C. Merkle, Mark Steyvers
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