Estimating Subjective Probabilities [PDF]
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2014 Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions, and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for
Steffen Andersen +2 more
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Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys [PDF]
Annual Review of Economics, 2009 Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand intertemporal decision making.
Hurd MD.
exaly +3 more sources
Apparent age and gender differences in survival optimism: To what extent are they a bias in the translation of beliefs onto a percentage scale? [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2021 A standard way to elicit expectations asks for the percentage chance an event will occur. Previous research demonstrates noise in reported percentages. The current research models a bias; a five percentage point change in reported probabilities implies a
David A. Comerford
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Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses, Validity, and Respondents’ Evaluations [PDF]
Risk Analysis, 2018 Wändi Bruine de Bruin +1 more
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A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2015 We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a “most likely interval”, a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome.
Karl H. Schlag, Joël J. van der Weele
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Responsibility judgments of wins and losses in the 2013 chess championship [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2014 We report two studies on the perceived responsibility of opponents competing for a goal that can be attained by only one of them. Responsibility judgments were collected in seven samples of lay people and experts before, during, and after the World Chess
Gro Hege Haraldsen Nordbye +1 more
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Objective and Subjective Solomonoff Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics [PDF]
Electronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science, 2018 Algorithmic probability has shown some promise in dealing with the probability problem in the Everett interpretation, since it provides an objective, single-case probability measure.
Allan F. Randall
doaj +1 more source
On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities [PDF]
Economic Theory, 1992 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Karni, Edi, Schmeidler, David
openaire +2 more sources
Decision analysis within the small company for specialized equipment destinated for monitoring the safety mining parameters [PDF]
MATEC Web of Conferences, 2022 This paper offers a review of fundamentals in decision analysis and the construction of evidence-based probabilities for use in decision-making. The term quantitative risk analysis generally connotes reliance on probability and statistics.
Tulpan Marioara +4 more
doaj +1 more source
The informational content of subjective expectations for health service use
BMC Health Services Research, 2021 Background This study aims to evaluate the informational content of people’s subjective probability expectations for using various health services.
Nathan Kettlewell
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