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Subjective probability is modulated by emotions [PDF]
Scientific ReportsInformation about risks and probabilities is ubiquitous in our environment, forming the basis for decisions in an uncertain world. Emotions are known to modulate subjective probability when probabilistic information is desired (as in gambles) or ...
Lara Abel +2 more
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Effect of knowledge differentiation and state space partitioning on subjective probability estimation [PDF]
Science Progress, 2021 A common technique for eliciting subjective probabilities is to provide a set of exclusive and exhaustive events and ask the assessor to estimate the probabilities of such events.
Mohammed A AlKhars
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The concept of probability, crisis in statistics, and the unbearable lightness of Bayesing
Science & Philosophy, 2023 Education in statistics, the application of statistics in scientific research, and statistics itself as a scientific discipline are in crisis. Within science, the main cause of the crisis is the insufficiently clarified concept of probability.
Boris Čulina
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Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve calibration [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2015 We apply the principles of the “Wisdom of Crowds (WoC)” to improve the calibration of interval estimates. Previous research has documented the significant impact of the WoC on the accuracy of point estimates but only a few studies have examined its ...
Saemi Park, David V. Budescu
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Subjective Probability Task: Validity and Reliability [PDF]
Klinik Psikiyatri Dergisi, 2018 Objective: Recent studies highlighted the importance of future prospections in cognitive-behavioural therapy for the promotion of healthy coping strategies and thinking patterns.
Hasan Ergüler, Aysegül Durak Batigün
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On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities [PDF]
Economic Theory, 1992 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Karni, Edi, Schmeidler, David
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SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY AND DELAY [PDF]
Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 1991 Human subjects indicated their preference between a hypothetical $1,000 reward available with various probabilities or delays and a certain reward of variable amount available immediately. The function relating the amount of the certain‐immediate reward subjectively equivalent to the delayed $1,000 reward had the same general shape (hyperbolic) as the ...
H, Rachlin, A, Raineri, D, Cross
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Estimating subjective probabilities [PDF]
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2014 Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions, and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for
Andersen, S. +3 more
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The category size bias: A mere misunderstanding [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2018 Redundant or excessive information can sometimes lead people to lean on it unnecessarily. Certain experimental designs can sometimes bias results in the researcher’s favor.
Hannah Perfecto +2 more
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Risk Assessment Framework for Outbound Supply-Chain Management
Information, 2020 We developed a framework for the risk assessment of delaying the delivery of shipments to customers in the presence of incomplete information pertaining to a significant, e.g., weather-related, event that could cause substantial disruption.
Mark Krystofik +4 more
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