Results 21 to 30 of about 1,935,344 (292)
The Role of the Subjectivist Position in the Probabilization of Forensic Science
Journal of Forensic Science and Medicine, 2015 This paper is concerned with the contribution of forensic science to the legal process by helping reduce uncertainty. Although it is now widely accepted that uncertainty should be handled by probability because it is a safeguard against incoherent ...
Alex Biedermann
doaj +1 more source
Frontiers in Psychology, 2020 It is important to reveal how humans evaluate an explanation of the recent development of explainable artificial intelligence. So, what makes people feel that one explanation is more likely than another?
Asaya Shimojo +2 more
doaj +1 more source
The Accuracy of Producers' Probability Beliefs: Evidence and Implications for Insurance Valuation
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2002 The accuracy of producers' subjective probability beliefs is examined through a survey of large cash-grain farmers in Illinois. Findings reveal that their subjective probability beliefs about important weather variables are systematically mis-calibrated.
Bruce J. Sherrick
doaj +1 more source
On the logical bases and gnosiological importance of the statistical method
Statistica, 2015 The Author deals with a number of arguments inherent statistical inference and probability as the frequency limit by von Mises, the correlation between probability and chance, the concepts of casualty and causality, the inversion of Bernoulli’s theorem ...
Corrado Gini
doaj +1 more source
Experimental Investigation on the Elicitation of Subjective Distributions
Frontiers in Psychology, 2019 Elicitation methods aim to build participants' distributions about a parameter of interest. In most elicitation studies this parameter is rarely known in advance and hinders an objective comparison between elicitation methods.
Carlos J. Barrera-Causil +2 more
doaj +1 more source
Better Foundations for Subjective Probability [PDF]
, 2023 How do we ascribe subjective probability? In decision theory, this question is often addressed by representation theorems, going back to Ramsey (1926), which tell us how to define or measure subjective probability by observable preferences.
Neth, Sven
core +1 more source
Modeling Dynamic Risk Perception Using Large Language Model (LLM) Agents
AIBackground: Understanding how accident risk escalates during unfolding industrial events is essential for developing intelligent safety systems. This study proposes a large language model (LLM)-based framework that simulates human-like risk reasoning ...
He Wen, Mojtaba Parsaee, Zaman Sajid
doaj +1 more source
The Subjective Probability of Conditionals and Its Formalizations
Studia Semiotyczne, 2023 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26333/sts.xxxvii1.04 The aim of the paper is to discuss the problem of the assignment of the degree of belief to conditional sentences by a rational agent.
Anna Wójtowicz, Krzysztof Wójtowicz
doaj
Optimal Reinsurance with Heterogeneous Reference Probabilities
Risks, 2016 This paper studies the problem of optimal reinsurance contract design. We let the insurer use dual utility, and the premium is an extended Wang’s premium principle.
Tim J. Boonen
doaj +1 more source
About Subjective Probability [PDF]
, 2023 The main purpose of this note is to study Anscombe and Aumann’s [1963] definition of subjective probability and their contributions to decision theory. We emphasize their main ideas, and we revise the framework that they proposed and which became one of ...
Vergopoulos, Vassili +1 more
core +1 more source