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Subjective probability is modulated by emotions [PDF]
Scientific ReportsInformation about risks and probabilities is ubiquitous in our environment, forming the basis for decisions in an uncertain world. Emotions are known to modulate subjective probability when probabilistic information is desired (as in gambles) or ...
Lara Abel +2 more
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Effect of knowledge differentiation and state space partitioning on subjective probability estimation [PDF]
Science Progress, 2021 A common technique for eliciting subjective probabilities is to provide a set of exclusive and exhaustive events and ask the assessor to estimate the probabilities of such events.
Mohammed A AlKhars
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Logic of subjective probability [PDF]
CoRR, 2023 In this paper I discuss both syntax and semantics of subjective probability. The semantics determines ways of testing probability statements. Among important varieties of subjective probabilities are intersubjective probabilities and impersonal probabilities, and I will argue that well-tested impersonal probabilities acquire features of objective ...
Vovk, Vladimir
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A Study of the Subjective Probability Assessments necessary for the analysis of the Risk in Major Capital Investment Opportunities. [PDF]
, 1976 Five case studies are analysed in depth and other investigations are carried out in order to answer questions concerned with: the nature of the distributions which are output from risk evaluation models. the important features of.
Hull, J. C.
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Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events [PDF]
Econometrica, 2001 Summary: This paper suggests a behavioral definition of (subjective) ambiguity in an abstract setting where objects of choice are Savage-style acts. Then axioms are described that deliver probabilistic sophistication of preference on the set of unambiguous acts.
Larry G. Epstein, Jiankang Zhang
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A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment
Judgment and Decision Making, 2010 Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause.
Uriel Haran +2 more
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An empirical investigation into the role of subjective prior probability in searching for potentially missing items [PDF]
Royal Society Open Science, 2015 There are many examples from the scientific literature of visual search tasks in which the length, scope and success rate of the search have been shown to vary according to the searcher's expectations of whether the search target is likely to be present.
T. R. Fanshawe
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Measurement: Sensors, 2022 The process of revising the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is ongoing. A successful revision must be theoretically sound, so it must be based on a recognized paradigm for scientific data analysis.
R. Willink
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On Some Applications of the Vougiouklis Hyperstructures to Probability Theory
Ratio Mathematica, 2017 Some important concepts about algebraic hyperstructures, especially from a geometric point of view, are recalled. Many applications of the Hv structures, introduced by Vougiouklis in 1990, to the de Finetti subjective probability theory are considered ...
Antonio Maturo, Fabrizio Maturo
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Judgment and Decision Making, 2015 When people judge risk or the probability of a risky prospect, single case narratives can bias judgments when a statistical base-rate is also provided.
Cornelia Betsch +3 more
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