Results 31 to 40 of about 630 (148)

Further development of adaptive parameter tuning in the numerical weather prediction models of Deutscher Wetterdienst

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The introduction of adaptive parameter tuning in the numerical weather prediction models of DWD in 2022 substantially improved the forecast quality of near‐surface variables like 2‐m temperature and 2‐m humidity. Since 2023, refinements and extensions, primarily affecting the surface evaporation and its diurnal cycle, have led to further advances ...
Günther Zängl
wiley   +1 more source

Multiscale numerical sensitivity simulations of a mesoscale gravity‐wave event

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
High‐resolution WRF simulations of the February 14–15, 1992 STORM‐FEST event show that mesoscale gravity‐wave genesis occurs via geostrophic adjustment within an upper‐level unbalanced jet, while wave ducting governs maintenance. High‐resolution (1 km), improved physical parameterization, and targeted sensitivity simulations demonstrate that upstream ...
Rajan Bhandari, Michael L. Kaplan, Ananya Sen   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase

Environmental Research: Climate
Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been linked to surface cold extremes over North America, but little is known whether the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) plays a role in this linkage. Here, by comparing strong stratospheric wave events during the
Xiuyuan Ding, Gang Chen, Gudrun Magnusdottir   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Evaluation and assimilation of Arctic Weather Satellite data in the AROME‐Arctic forecast system

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The Arctic Weather Satellite (AWS), launched in August 2024, is a prototype for the future EPS–Sterna constellation of small satellites carrying an innovative microwave sounder. We present the first assessment of AWS in the regional AROME‐Arctic numerical weather prediction system, covering post‐launch calibration results and the impact of AWS ...
Stéphanie Guedj, Per Dahlgren, Máté Mile   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

Environmental Research Letters, 2019
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), dominates winter climate variability in Europe and North America.
Yu Nie, Adam A Scaife, Hong-Li Ren, Ruth E Comer, Martin B Andrews, Philip Davis, Nicola Martin   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source

Attribution of subseasonal cold‐spell forecasts to remote drivers using nudging experiments

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Nudging experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model show that Northern European cold spells can arise from different drivers. Some events are predominantly influenced by stratospheric dynamics, while others also involve important tropospheric processes.
Irene Erner, Alexey Karpechko, Inna Polichtchouk, Frédéric Vitart   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Synoptic and large‐scale drivers of extreme precipitation events in the Himalayas

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Months associated with maximum frequency of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). 6102 extreme precipitation days (i.e., exceeding 99th percentile for daily precipitation) occurred across the Karakoram, Western Himalayas (WH), Central Himalayas (CH) and Eastern Himalayas (EH) during 1979 to 2023.
Priya Bharati, Pranab Deb, Kieran M. R. Hunt   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Decadal‐scale drivers of South Pacific hydroclimate variability

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Using prescribed SST perturbations in the IGCM4 model, we investigate the mechanisms by which three major modes of low‐frequency climate variability—the IPO, AMV, and Southern Ocean SST‐driven midlatitude jet shifts—modulate the South Pacific hydroclimate.
Daniel T. Skinner, Connor Robbins, Gordon N. Inglis, Manoj Joshi, Peter Langdon, Adrian J. Matthews, Mark Peaple, Timothy J. Osborn, David A. Sear   +8 more
wiley   +1 more source

Satellite radiance observation error inflation and spatial thinning: Reconciling idealized theory with near‐operational applications

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Satellite radiance observations are spatially thinned using a grid‐based selection that retains one representative profile per cell. When observation errors are spatially correlated but treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation system, reducing thinning increases their influence, leading to overfitting and reduced analysis fit with other observations.
Joel Bedard, Alain Beaulne, Mark Buehner, Laurence Coursol   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Diversity of Stratospheric Error Growth Across Subseasonal Prediction Systems

Geophysical Research Letters
The stratosphere has previously been shown to be a significant source of subseasonal tropospheric predictability. The ability of ensemble prediction systems to appropriately exploit this depends on their ability to reproduce the statistical properties of
R. W. Lee, A. J. Charlton‐Perez
doaj   +1 more source