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Subjective probability is modulated by emotions [PDF]
Scientific ReportsInformation about risks and probabilities is ubiquitous in our environment, forming the basis for decisions in an uncertain world. Emotions are known to modulate subjective probability when probabilistic information is desired (as in gambles) or ...
Lara Abel +2 more
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Estimating subjective probabilities [PDF]
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2014 Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions, and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for
Andersen, S. +3 more
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The concept of probability, crisis in statistics, and the unbearable lightness of Bayesing
Science & Philosophy, 2023 Education in statistics, the application of statistics in scientific research, and statistics itself as a scientific discipline are in crisis. Within science, the main cause of the crisis is the insufficiently clarified concept of probability.
Boris Čulina
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Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve calibration [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2015 We apply the principles of the “Wisdom of Crowds (WoC)” to improve the calibration of interval estimates. Previous research has documented the significant impact of the WoC on the accuracy of point estimates but only a few studies have examined its ...
Saemi Park, David V. Budescu
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The category size bias: A mere misunderstanding [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2018 Redundant or excessive information can sometimes lead people to lean on it unnecessarily. Certain experimental designs can sometimes bias results in the researcher’s favor.
Hannah Perfecto +2 more
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Categorical Versus Graded Beliefs
Frontiers in Psychology, 2022 This essay discusses the difficulty to reconcile two paradigms about beliefs: the binary or categorical paradigm of yes/no beliefs and the probabilistic paradigm of degrees of belief.
Franz Dietrich
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Risk Assessment Framework for Outbound Supply-Chain Management
Information, 2020 We developed a framework for the risk assessment of delaying the delivery of shipments to customers in the presence of incomplete information pertaining to a significant, e.g., weather-related, event that could cause substantial disruption.
Mark Krystofik +4 more
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Expected utility for probabilistic prospects and the common ratio property [PDF]
Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research, 2023 We prove the existence of an expected utility function for preferences over probabilistic prospects satisfying Strict Monotonicity, Indifference, the Common Ratio Property, Substitution and Reducibility of Extreme Prospects.
Lahiri Somdeb
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Subjective probability and quantum certainty [PDF]
, 2007 In the Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics, probabilities--and thus quantum states--represent an agent's degrees of belief, rather than corresponding to objective properties of physical systems. In this paper we investigate the concept of certainty in
Appleby +57 more
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A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment
Judgment and Decision Making, 2010 Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause.
Uriel Haran +2 more
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