Results 21 to 30 of about 2,925,891 (315)
Judgment and Decision Making, 2015 When people judge risk or the probability of a risky prospect, single case narratives can bias judgments when a statistical base-rate is also provided.
Cornelia Betsch +3 more
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Frontiers in Psychology, 2020 It is important to reveal how humans evaluate an explanation of the recent development of explainable artificial intelligence. So, what makes people feel that one explanation is more likely than another?
Asaya Shimojo +2 more
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The Role of the Subjectivist Position in the Probabilization of Forensic Science
Journal of Forensic Science and Medicine, 2015 This paper is concerned with the contribution of forensic science to the legal process by helping reduce uncertainty. Although it is now widely accepted that uncertainty should be handled by probability because it is a safeguard against incoherent ...
Alex Biedermann
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The Accuracy of Producers' Probability Beliefs: Evidence and Implications for Insurance Valuation
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2002 The accuracy of producers' subjective probability beliefs is examined through a survey of large cash-grain farmers in Illinois. Findings reveal that their subjective probability beliefs about important weather variables are systematically mis-calibrated.
Bruce J. Sherrick
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On the logical bases and gnosiological importance of the statistical method
Statistica, 2015 The Author deals with a number of arguments inherent statistical inference and probability as the frequency limit by von Mises, the correlation between probability and chance, the concepts of casualty and causality, the inversion of Bernoulli’s theorem ...
Corrado Gini
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Experimental Investigation on the Elicitation of Subjective Distributions
Frontiers in Psychology, 2019 Elicitation methods aim to build participants' distributions about a parameter of interest. In most elicitation studies this parameter is rarely known in advance and hinders an objective comparison between elicitation methods.
Carlos J. Barrera-Causil +2 more
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Subjective value representations during effort, probability and time discounting across adulthood
Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 2018 Every day, humans make countless decisions that require the integration of information about potential benefits (i.e. rewards) with other decision features (i.e. effort required, probability of an outcome or time delays). Here, we examine the overlap and
K. Seaman +8 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Modeling Dynamic Risk Perception Using Large Language Model (LLM) Agents
AIBackground: Understanding how accident risk escalates during unfolding industrial events is essential for developing intelligent safety systems. This study proposes a large language model (LLM)-based framework that simulates human-like risk reasoning ...
He Wen, Mojtaba Parsaee, Zaman Sajid
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Optimal Reinsurance with Heterogeneous Reference Probabilities
Risks, 2016 This paper studies the problem of optimal reinsurance contract design. We let the insurer use dual utility, and the premium is an extended Wang’s premium principle.
Tim J. Boonen
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Bayesian Decision Theory and Stochastic Independence [PDF]
, 2020 As stochastic independence is essential to the mathematical development of probability theory, it seems that any foundational work on probability should be able to account for this property. Bayesian decision theory appears to be wanting in this respect.
Mongin, Philippe
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