Results 1 to 10 of about 2,208 (266)
Economics: Journal Articles, 2016 Abstract This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to reply to the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB’s SPF). The results suggest that higher (lower) aggregate uncertainty increases (reduces) non-response to the survey.
Víctor López-Pérez
doaj +9 more sources
International Journal of ForecastingThis is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record ; This paper explores whether the dispersion in forecasted crude oil prices from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters can provide insights for predicting crude oil return volatility.
Ai Jun Hou, Sandy Suardi, Caihong Xu
exaly +6 more sources
Overprecision in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Academy of Management Proceedings, 2022 Every decision depends on a forecast of its consequences. We examine the calibration of the single longest and most complete forecasting project. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has, since 1968, collected predictions of key economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Here, we test the accuracy of those forecasts (n =
Sandy Campbell, Don A. Moore
semanticscholar +3 more sources
Macroeconomic Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), 1997 Do professional forecasters distort their reported forecasts in a way that compromises accuracy? New research in the theory of forecasting suggests such a possibility. In a recent paper, Owen Lamont finds that forecasters in the Business Week survey make more radical forecasts as they gain experience.
Tom Stark
core +3 more sources
Asymmetric loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
International Journal of Forecasting, 2014 Abstract This paper examines the forecast rationality of the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) under asymmetric loss functions, using the method proposed by Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) with a rolling window strategy.
Tae-Hwy Lee, Yiyao Wang
openaire +2 more sources
Predictability beyond accuracy: A correlation-based evaluation of survey forecasts of the Chilean exchange rate. [PDF]
PLoS ONEFloating exchange rates are widely considered difficult-if not impossible-to predict. While traditional evaluations focus on out-of-sample accuracy measures such as Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), recent literature argues that predictability is ...
Pablo Pincheira +3 more
doaj +2 more sources
Can Recurrent Neural Networks Predict Inflation in Euro Zone as Good as Professional Forecasters?
Mathematics, 2021 This paper investigates whether a specific type of a recurrent neural network, in particular Jordan neural network (JNN), captures the expected inflation better than commonly used feedforward neural networks and traditional parametric time-series models.
Tea Šestanović, Josip Arnerić
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Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time
Econometrics, 2021 We analyze real-time forecasts of US inflation over 1999Q3–2019Q4 and subsamples, investigating whether and how forecast accuracy and robustness can be improved with additional information such as expert judgment, additional macroeconomic variables, and ...
Chad Fulton, Kirstin Hubrich
doaj +1 more source
Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts to improve their accuracy [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2022 The accuracy of human forecasters is often reduced because of incomplete information and cognitive biases that affect the judges. One approach to improve the accuracy of the forecasts is to recalibrate them by means of non-linear transformations that are
Ying Han, David V. Budescu
doaj
Inflation Risk in the Euro Area — How to Achieve a Soft Landing
Wirtschaftsdienst, 2022 Whereas strong demand is a key factor driving high inflation in the US, inflation in the Euro Area is mainly due to adverse external supply shocks (in Europe, energy prices are much higher due to the war in Ukraine).
Gerhard Illing
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