An Introduction to the Ecb's Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003 This paper provides a detailed overview of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a quarterly survey of euro area key macroeconomic variables conducted by the European Central Bank since 1999. Its purpose is to provide the necessary information for anyone interested in analysing or reporting the survey results.
J. Á. Garcia
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Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?
Economics Letters, 2023 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Yunjong Eo, James Morley
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Combining the Forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Can Anything Beat the Simple Average? [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010 In this paper, we explore the potential gains from alternative combinations of the surveyed forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our analysis encompasses a variety of methods including statistical combinations based on principal components analysis and trimmed means, performance-based weighting, least squares estimates of optimal ...
Genre, Véronique +3 more
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Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters
, 1997 Since 1968, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has asked respondents to provide a complete probability distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1998).
Francis Diebold +2 more
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Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times Using the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012 This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work.
Koop, Gary, Onorante, Luca
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Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters [PDF]
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Reitz, Stefan +2 more
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Measuring Uncertainty and Disagreement in the European Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011 Survey data on expectations and economic forecasts play an important role in providing better insights into how economic agents make their own forecasts and why agents disagree in making them.Using data from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), we consider measures of uncertainty and disagreement at both aggregate and individual level.
Cristina Conflitti
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Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters? [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015 This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in measures of uncertainty over time have led to changes in ...
Víctor López-Pérez
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How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2016 This study examines short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We focus on dispersion of forecaster views comparing two sub-groups of survey respondents based on forecast accuracy.
Oinonen, Sami, Paloviita, Maritta
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Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts [PDF]
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2019 Abstract We report results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Using data for 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense that they overwhelmingly rely on methods and theories that
Döpke, Jörg +2 more
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