Results 201 to 210 of about 8,939,565 (239)
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Base rates: Both neglected and intuitive.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2014Base-rate neglect refers to the tendency for people to underweight base-rate probabilities in favor of diagnostic information. It is commonly held that base-rate neglect occurs because effortful (Type 2) reasoning is required to process base-rate information, whereas diagnostic information is accessible to fast, intuitive (Type 1) processing (e.g ...
Gordon Pennycook +3 more
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2021
The likelihood of a diagnosis in a patient is directly related to the likelihood of that diagnosis in the general population. Rare diagnoses occur rarely and common diagnoses occur commonly. This is why every medical student has heard the saying, “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras.” This sage advice (albeit not applicable in Africa ...
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The likelihood of a diagnosis in a patient is directly related to the likelihood of that diagnosis in the general population. Rare diagnoses occur rarely and common diagnoses occur commonly. This is why every medical student has heard the saying, “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras.” This sage advice (albeit not applicable in Africa ...
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Teaching Pigeons to Commit Base-Rate Neglect
Psychological Science, 2005Whereas humans display base-rate neglect in a behavioral analogue of the base-rate problem, pigeons have been shown to behave optimally in a comparable task, appropriately weighting base-rate and case-cue information. Previous studies have shown that prior experience may interfere with optimal decisions for human subjects, a result consistent with the ...
Edmund, Fantino +2 more
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Waiting for the bus: When base-rates refuse to be neglected
Cognition, 2007The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994). The ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P.
Teigen, K.H., Keren, G.B.
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Base Rate Neglect Under Ambiguity
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019Base rate neglect typically involves the underweighting of priors in a world with objective probability distributions (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). In reality, however, individuals often face scenarios with ambiguous priors, in which they have no full confidence.
Yiangyan Li, Jianying Qiu, Utz Weitzel
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Natural sampling and base-rate neglect
European Journal of Social Psychology, 1998Using an analogue of the lawyer-and-engineer item (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973), we compared conditions in which base rates were either presented as percentages (A), or frequencies (B), to conditions in which the natural sampling process was described additionally (C) or was directly experienced (D).
Tilmann Betsch +3 more
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The motivated use and neglect of base rates
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007AbstractEgo-justifying, group-justifying, and system-justifying motivations contribute to base-rate respect. People tend to neglect (and use) base rates when doing so allows them to draw desired conclusions about matters such as their health, the traits of their in-groups, and the fairness of the social system.
Eric Luis Uhlmann +2 more
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American base‐rate neglect: It is not the math, but the context
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2020AbstractWe investigate cross‐cultural disparities in focalism bias through two studies of probability estimation. Using 60 American and 60 Chinese participants, Experiment 1 yields the standard finding that Americans manifest greater focalism bias by tending to neglect background probability base‐rates and to rely more heavily on obtained samples in ...
Shali Wu, Clifton Emery
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Memory mechanisms in pigeons: Evidence of base-rate neglect.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes, 2002In delayed matching to sample, once acquired, pigeons presumably choose comparisons according to their memory for (the strength of) the sample. When memory for the sample is sufficiently weak, comparison choice should depend on the history of reinforcement associated with each of the comparison stimuli.
Thomas R, Zentall, Tricia S, Clement
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Physicians neglect base rates, and it matters
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 1996AbstractA recent study showed physicians' reasoning about a realistic case to be ignorant of base rate. It also showed physicians interpreting information pertinent to base rate differently, depending on whether it was presented early or late in the case. Although these adult reasoners might do better if given hints through talk of relative frequencies,
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