The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs. [PDF]
PLoS Computational Biology, 2022 Base-rate neglect is a pervasive bias in judgment that is conceptualized as underweighting of prior information and can have serious consequences in real-world scenarios.
Brandon K Ashinoff +3 more
doaj +2 more sources
Model-based fMRI reveals dissimilarity processes underlying base rate neglect [PDF]
eLife, 2018 Extensive evidence suggests that people use base rate information inconsistently in decision making. A classic example is the inverse base rate effect (IBRE), whereby participants classify ambiguous stimuli sharing features of both common and rare ...
Sean R O'Bryan +3 more
doaj +2 more sources
Base-rate neglect as a function of base rates in probabilistic contingency learning. [PDF]
J Exp Anal Behav, 2008 When humans predict criterion events based on probabilistic predictors, they often lend excessive weight to the predictor and insufficient weight to the base rate of the criterion event. In an operant analysis, using a matching‐to‐sample paradigm, Goodie and Fantino (1996) showed that humans exhibit base‐rate neglect when predictors are associated with
Kutzner F +3 more
europepmc +4 more sources
Medical student syndrome: a bayesian reasoning failure [PDF]
BMC Medical EducationBackground Medical Student Syndrome (MSS) is often understood as a manifestation of illness anxiety disorder where medical students misinterpret benign symptoms as signs of a serious illness.
Ryan C. Clarkson, Naeem Paruk
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Seeing is believing: Priors, trust, and base rate neglect [PDF]
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2012 Abstract Kahneman and Tversky (1973) described an effect they called ‘insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes’, later dubbed base rate neglect, which describes people’s tendency to underweight prior information in favor of new data. As probability theory requires that prior probabilities be taken into account, via Bayes’ theorem, the fact ...
Danielle Navarro, Matthew Welsh
exaly +4 more sources
The role of base-rate neglect in cyberchondria and health anxiety
Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 2022 Cyberchondria is characterized by excessive health-related online search behavior associated with an unfounded escalation of concerns about common symptomatology. It often co-occurs with health anxiety. We investigated whether base-rate neglect-the cognitive bias to ignore a priori probabilities (e.g., of serious diseases)-plays a significant role in ...
Morten Moshagen +2 more
exaly +4 more sources
Cognitive biases as Bayesian probability weighting in context [PDF]
Frontiers in PsychologyIntroductionHumans often exhibit systematic biases in judgments under uncertainty, such as conservatism bias and base-rate neglect. This study investigates the context dependence of these biases within a Bayesian framework.MethodsForty-eight participants
Bruno Kopp
doaj +2 more sources
Base rate neglect and neural computations for subjective weight in decision under uncertainty [PDF]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020 Shih-Wei Wu
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Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2022 Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in light of new evidence (i.e., the likelihood).
Piers Douglas Lionel Howe +4 more
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Individual differences in base rate neglect: A fuzzy processing preference index [PDF]
Learning and Individual Differences, 2013 Christopher R Wolfe +1 more
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