Toward a more nuanced understanding of probability estimation biases
Frontiers in Psychology, 2023 In real life, we often have to make judgements under uncertainty. One such judgement task is estimating the probability of a given event based on uncertain evidence for the event, such as estimating the chances of actual fire when the fire alarm goes off.
Fallon Branch, Jay Hegdé
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Lucky numbers : spatial neglect affects physical, but not representational, choices in a Lotto task. [PDF]
, 2010 Spatial neglect can be characterized by a “magnetic attraction” towards the right side of a visual stimulus array and a selection of stimuli from that hemispace.
Bradshaw, John L. +4 more
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Comparing fast thinking and slow thinking: The relative benefits of interventions, individual differences, and inferential rules [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2020 Research on judgment and decision making has suggested that the System 2 process of slow thinking can help people to improve their decision making by reducing well-established statistical decision biases (including base rate neglect, probability matching,
M. Asher Lawson +2 more
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Reasoning Strategy and Base-Rate Neglect
, 2021 This study examines the relationship between reasoning strategy, cognitive reflection, and base-rate neglect. Participants will complete a reasoning strategy diagnostic, a cognitive reflection task, and base-rate neglect task. We will examine if there is
Tommi Mayers, Dustin Calvillo
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Single-Heuristic Reasoning: Is It Still Dual-Process?
Journal of Intelligence, 2023 Traditionally, paradigms used to study conflict in reasoning (and metacognition during reasoning) pit heuristic processes against analytical processes.
Pavle Valerjev, Marin Dujmović
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Theories of truth as assessment criteria in judgment and decision making [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2009 Hammond (1996) argued that much of the research in the field of judgment and decision making (JDM) can be categorized as focused on either coherence or correspondence (CandC) and that, in order to understand the findings of the field, one needs to ...
Philip T. Dunwoody
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Base-rate training without case cues reduces base-rate neglect [PDF]
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 1999 Base-rate neglect is a persistent phenomenon in which subjects do not place sufficient weight on the probabilities of occurrence of relevant events. Two experiments with college students support the hypothesis that base-rate neglect may be minimized by providing base-rate training in the absence of case, or witness, cues, prior to introducing (or ...
D A, Case, E, Fantino, A S, Goodie
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Is Automation of Statistical Reasoning a Suitable Mindware in a Base-Rate Neglect Task?
Psychological Topics, 2021 Until recently, studies within the dual-process approach were mainly focused on group differences in processing, and individual differences were neglected.
Klara Rapan, Pavle Valerjev
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Debiasing the Base Rate Neglect with Visual Presentation
, 2021 1) Does the Base Rate Neglect occur?
Chiara Seitz
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Turbulence in the stratified boundary layer under ice: observations from Lake Baikal and a new similarity model [PDF]
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2020 Seasonal ice cover on lakes and polar seas creates seasonally developing boundary layer at the ice base with specific features: fixed temperature at the solid boundary and stable density stratification beneath.
G. Kirillin +4 more
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