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Bayesian Reasoning with Trained Neural Networks [PDF]
Entropy, 2021 We showed how to use trained neural networks to perform Bayesian reasoning in order to solve tasks outside their initial scope. Deep generative models provide prior knowledge, and classification/regression networks impose constraints.
Jakob Knollmüller, Torsten A. Enßlin
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The psychology of Bayesian reasoning [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2014 Most psychological research on Bayesian reasoning since the 1970s has used a type of problem that tests a certain kind of statistical reasoning performance. The subject is given statistical facts within a hypothetical scenario. Those facts include a base-rate statistic and one or two diagnostic probabilities.
David R. Mandel
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The Use of Visualizations to Improve Bayesian Reasoning: A Literature Review [PDF]
Vision, 2023 Decisions are often made under uncertainty. The most that one can do is use prior knowledge (e.g., base rates, prior probabilities, etc.) and make the most probable choice given the information we have.
Lucy Cui, Stephanie Lo, Zili Liu
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The Effects of Working Memory and Probability Format on Bayesian Reasoning [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2020 Bayesian reasoning is common and critical in everyday life while the performance on Bayesian reasoning is rather poor. Previous studies showed that people could enhance their performance by applying cognitive resources under the natural frequency format ...
Lin Yin +5 more
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Effect of Probability Information on Bayesian Reasoning: A Study of Event-Related Potentials [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2019 People often confront Bayesian reasoning problems and make decisions under uncertainty in daily life. However, the time course of Bayesian reasoning remains unclear.
Zifu Shi +4 more
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Indirect reciprocity with Bayesian reasoning and biases. [PDF]
PLoS Computational BiologyReputations can foster cooperation by indirect reciprocity: if I am good to you then others will be good to me. But this mechanism for cooperation in one-shot interactions only works when people agree on who is good and who is bad.
Bryce Morsky +2 more
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Effect of hit rate and cognitive style on Bayesian reasoning: evidence from eye movements [PDF]
Frontiers in PsychologyWhile psychological research has established both probability information and cognitive style as key factors in Bayesian reasoning, their interactive effects remain underexplored.
Lin Yin, Zifu Shi, Mei Liu, Huohong Chen
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Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2009 Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect
Gretchen B. Chapman, Jingjing Liu
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Bayesian reasoning in residents' preliminary diagnoses. [PDF]
Cogn Res Princ Implic, 2016 Whether and when humans in general, and physicians in particular, use their beliefs about base rates in Bayesian reasoning tasks is a long-standing question. Unfortunately, previous research on whether doctors use their beliefs about the prevalence of diseases in diagnostic judgments has critical limitations.
Rottman BM, Prochaska MT, Deaño RC.
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Bayesian reasoning with ifs and ands and ors [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2015 The Bayesian approach to the psychology of reasoning generalizes binary logic, extending the binary concept of consistency to that of coherence, and allowing the study of deductive reasoning from uncertain premises.
Nicole eCruz +3 more
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