Results 11 to 20 of about 17,736 (248)
Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): Implications for improving Bayesian reasoning [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2015 The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a two-step decision problem involving counterintuitive conditional probabilities. The first choice is made among three equally probable options, whereas the second choice takes place after the elimination of one of the non-
Elisabet eTubau +5 more
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Bayesian reasoning in science [PDF]
Nature, 1991 Bayesian scientific reasoning has a sound foundation in logic and provides a unified approach to the evaluation of deterministic and statistical theories, unlike its main rivals.
Colin Howson, Peter Urbach
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How to Train Novices in Bayesian Reasoning
Mathematics, 2022 Bayesian Reasoning is both a fundamental idea of probability and a key model in applied sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the dealing with, and understanding of, Bayesian situations.
Theresa Büchter +6 more
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Designing Visualisations for Bayesian Problems According to Multimedia Principles
Education Sciences, 2022 Questions involving Bayesian Reasoning often arise in events of everyday life, such as assessing the results of a breathalyser test or a medical diagnostic test. Bayesian Reasoning is perceived to be difficult, but visualisations are known to support it.
Theresa Büchter +6 more
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Measuring people’s covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations
Frontiers in Psychology, 2023 Previous research on Bayesian reasoning has typically investigated people’s ability to assess a posterior probability (i.e., a positive predictive value) based on prior knowledge (i.e., base rate, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate).
Nicole Steib +6 more
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Beliefs and Bayesian reasoning [PDF]
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2016 We examine whether judgments of posterior probabilities in Bayesian reasoning problems are affected by reasoners' beliefs about corresponding real-world probabilities. In an internet-based task, participants were asked to determine the probability that a hypothesis is true (posterior probability, e.g., a person has a disease, given a positive medical ...
Andrew L, Cohen +2 more
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The Effect of Bayesian Reasoning Training on the Results of Clinical Reasoning Tests of Interns [PDF]
Pizhūhish dar Āmūzish-i ̒ulūm-i Pizishkī, 2022 Introduction: Clinical reasoning includes a range of thinking about clinical medicine at all stages of patient evaluation. Bayesian theory can be used to refute or confirm differential diagnoses in the clinical reasoning process. In this way, by learning
Sh yazdani +3 more
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Denotative and connotative management of uncertainty: A computational dual-process model [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2021 The interplay between intuitive and deliberative processing is known to be important for human decision making. As independent modes, intuitive processes can take on many forms from associative to constructive, while deliberative processes often rely on ...
Jesse Hoey +2 more
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Bayesian network variable elimination method optimal elimination order construction [PDF]
ITM Web of Conferences, 2022 Variable Elimination (VE) is the most basic one of many Bayesian network inference algorithms. The speed and complexity of reasoning mainly depend on the order of elimination.
Ren Dongping, Guo Jianxi, Hao Xiaoli
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Interpreting Dynamical Systems as Bayesian Reasoners [PDF]
, 2021 11 pages + 26 pages appendix, to be published in the proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Active Inference ...
Nathaniel Virgo +2 more
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