Results 61 to 70 of about 670 (182)
DSGE Models and the Lucas Critique [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013 Abstract Modern DSGE models are microfounded and have deep parameters that should be invariant to changes in economic policy, so in principle they are not subject to the Lucas critique. But the literature has already established that misspecification issues also cause parameter instability after policy changes in DSGE models.
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Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models [PDF]
Journal of International Economics, 2016 Abstract We run an exchange rate forecasting “horse race”, which highlights that three principles hold. First, forecasts should not replicate the high volatility of exchange rates observed in sample. Second, models should exploit the mean reversion of the real exchange rate over long horizons. Third, they should account for the international price co-
Ca' Zorzi, Michele +2 more
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Output Gap Uncertainty, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Contingent Importance of the Bond Vigilantes
Metroeconomica, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper investigates the implications of output gap uncertainty for the conduct of fiscal policy using a small‐scale macroeconomic model with boundedly rational agents. Specifically, agents use an adaptive updating mechanism to approximate the unobservable potential output that suffers, similarly to the Hodrick and Prescott (1997) filter ...
Christian R. Proaño, Jonas Dix
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Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle in Mongolia: GMM and DSGE Approaches
International Journal of Financial Studies, 2020 This article aims to examine the monetary policy rule under an inflation targeting in Mongolia with a focus on its conformity to the Taylor principle, through two kinds of approaches: a monetary policy reaction function by the generalized-method-of ...
Hiroyuki Taguchi, Ganbayar Gunbileg
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Frequentist Evaluation of Small DSGE Models [PDF]
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2015 This paper proposes a new evaluation approach for the class of small-scale ‘hybrid’ New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) models typically used in monetary policy and business cycle analysis. The empirical assessment of the NK-DSGE model is based on a conditional sequence of likelihood-based tests conducted in a Vector ...
Gunnar Bårdsen, Luca Fanelli
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The Role of Labour Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We examine how labour market institutions shape monetary policy transmission in euro area countries. A theoretical model suggests that higher union density flattens the Phillips curve, amplifying output responses while dampening the inflation effects of monetary shocks. This is empirically confirmed using an interacted panel VAR.
Maximilian Boeck, Christian Glocker
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Non‐stationary Hours in a DSGE Model [PDF]
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2006 The time series fit of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models often suffers from restrictions on the long‐run dynamics that are at odds with the data. Using Bayesian methods we estimate a stochastic growth model in which hours worked are stationary and a modified version with permanent labor supply shocks. If firms can freely adjust labor
Yongsung Chang +2 more
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Stochastic Simulation Model for Forecasting Index‐Linked Public Expenditure
Public Budgeting &Finance, EarlyView.Abstract This paper introduces a system dynamics (SD) model for analyzing public sector cost growth, where costs are tied to indices. The SD model isolates the effects of automatic indexation, providing probabilistic projections of expenditure growth. It enables testing of alternative indexation strategies and cost‐reduction measures. Findings show how
Miia Rissanen +2 more
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DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010 Monetary DSGE models are widely used because they fit the data well and can be used to address important monetary policy questions. We provide a selective review of these developments. Policy analysis with DSGE models requires using data to assign numerical values to model parameters.
Lawrence J. Christiano +2 more
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News shocks, consumer confidence and business cycles
Economica, Volume 93, Issue 370, Page 648-676, April 2026.Abstract We study the causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks on macroeconomic aggregates. By constructing a novel instrument based on major non‐economic news shocks in the USA over 1969–2022, and opinion polls around these events, we identify exogenous changes in consumer confidence.
Syed M. Hussain, Zara Liaqat
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