A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting [PDF]
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021 The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that
W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, T. H. Jordan
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Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes [PDF]
Nature CommunicationsSeismic data recorded before volcanic eruptions provides important clues for forecasting. However, limited monitoring histories and infrequent eruptions restrict the data available for training forecasting models.
Alberto Ardid +17 more
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Pilot study of eruption forecasting with muography using convolutional neural network. [PDF]
Sci Rep, 2020 Muography is a novel method of visualizing the internal structures of active volcanoes by using high-energy near-horizontally arriving cosmic muons. The purpose of this study is to show the feasibility of muography to forecast the eruption event with the
Nomura Y +9 more
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Bayesian Network Modeling and Expert Elicitation for Probabilistic Eruption Forecasting: Pilot Study for Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that provide a robust and flexible framework for understanding complex systems. Limited case studies have demonstrated the potential of BNs in modeling multiple data streams for eruption ...
Annemarie Christophersen +6 more
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Intra‐Eruption Forecasting Using Analogue Volcano and Eruption Sets [PDF]
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2022 Forecasting the likely style and chronology of activity within an eruption is a complex issue that has received far less attention than forecasting the onset and/or the magnitude.
Mark Bebbington, Susanna F. Jenkins
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Automated Eruption Forecasting at Frequently Active Volcanoes Using Bayesian Networks Learned From Monitoring Data and Expert Elicitation: Application to Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa, New Zealand [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022 Volcano observatory best practice recommends using probabilistic methods to forecast eruptions to account for the complex natural processes leading up to an eruption and communicating the inherent uncertainties in appropriate ways. Bayesian networks (BNs)
Annemarie Christophersen +2 more
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Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2017 In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques ...
M. Grace Bato +2 more
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A physics-based source model for real-time tephra-dispersal forecasting for weak eruption plumes [PDF]
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 A physics-based model to estimate source conditions for a tephra-dispersal model is developed. The source condition is generally expressed by a distribution of released particles along an eruption plume (referred to as “source magnitude distribution” SMD)
Kensuke Ishii +3 more
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The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting
Nature Communications, 2020 The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in ...
M. R. Patrick +7 more
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Universal machine learning approach to volcanic eruption forecasting using seismic features [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth ScienceIntroduction: Volcano seismology has successfully predicted several eruptions and includes many reliable methods that have been adopted extensively by volcanic observatories; however, there are several problems that still lack solutions.
Pablo Rey‐Devesa +5 more
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