Results 1 to 10 of about 475 (86)
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting [PDF]
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021 Abstract. The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that pervade the modeling of pre-, sin-, and post-eruptive processes.
Warner Marzocchi +2 more
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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions [PDF]
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 1986 Forecasting natural events such as landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions is a difficult problem compounded by conflicting expectations. Society wants accurate warnings of these events, yet the scientific com munity is not able to provide forecasts as accurate as desired because these natural events are only partly understood.
Robert W. Decker
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Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes [PDF]
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2017 A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start.
S. Blake, Joaquín A. Cortés
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Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an evacuation [PDF]
Geophysical Research Letters, 2007 One of the most critical practical actions to reduce volcanic risk is the evacuation of people from threatened areas during volcanic unrest. Despite its importance, this decision is usually arrived at subjectively by a few individuals, with little quantitative decision support.
Warner Marzocchi, Gordon Woo
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Intra‐Eruption Forecasting Using Analogue Volcano and Eruption Sets [PDF]
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2022 AbstractForecasting the likely style and chronology of activity within an eruption is a complex issue that has received far less attention than forecasting the onset and/or the magnitude. By developing a global data set of coded phases (discrete styles of activity within previous eruptions), we can model the resulting data using a semi‐Markov chain ...
Mark Bebbington, Susanna F. Jenkins
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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions: Beyond the Failure Forecast Method [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 Volcano-tectonic seismicity and ground movement are the most reliable precursors to eruptions after extended intervals of repose, as well as to flank eruptions from frequently active volcanoes. Their behavior is consistent with elastic-brittle failure of the crust before a new pathway is opened to allow magma ascent.
Christopher R. J. Kilburn
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New tools for forecasting steam-blast eruptions [PDF]
Physics Today, 2018 Satellite data can pinpoint predictors of future explosive activity.
Rachel Berkowitz
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Understanding and forecasting phreatic eruptions driven by magmatic degassing [PDF]
Earth, Planets and Space, 2018 This paper examines phreatic eruptions which are driven by inputs of magma and magmatic gas. We synthesize data from several significant phreatic systems, including two in Costa Rica (Turrialba and Poás) which are currently highly active and hazardous.
John Stix, J. Maarten de Moor
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Coronary Imaging Modalities for Forecasting the “Eruption of the Volcano”
Circulation Journal, 2015 Nobuaki Suzuki, Ken Kozuma
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Defining the Pre-Eruptive States of Active Volcanoes for Improving Eruption Forecasting [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022 A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the difficulty in interpreting the monitoring signals in terms of the exact timing of a possible eruption.
Rosi, Mauro +7 more
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