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Intra‐Eruption Forecasting Using Analogue Volcano and Eruption Sets [PDF]

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2022
AbstractForecasting the likely style and chronology of activity within an eruption is a complex issue that has received far less attention than forecasting the onset and/or the magnitude. By developing a global data set of coded phases (discrete styles of activity within previous eruptions), we can model the resulting data using a semi‐Markov chain ...
Mark Bebbington, Susanna F. Jenkins
openalex   +4 more sources

Forecasting an eruption [PDF]

Nature Geoscience, 2008
Florent Brenguier, Valerie Ferrazzini and their colleagues braved tropical cyclones and crater collapses while recording continuous seismological data on the Piton de la Foumaise volcano.
Brenguier, F., Ferrazzini, V.
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A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting [PDF]

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021
The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that
W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, T. H. Jordan
doaj   +2 more sources

Volcanic Precursor Revealed by Machine Learning Offers New Eruption Forecasting Capability [PDF]

Geophysical Research Letters
Seismicity at active volcanoes provides crucial constraints on the dynamics of magma systems and complex fault activation processes preceding and during an eruption.
Kaiwen Wang, Felix Waldhauser, Maya Tolstoy, David Schaff, Theresa Sawi, William S. D. Wilcock, Yen Joe Tan   +6 more
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Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases [PDF]

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2017
In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques ...
M. Grace Bato, Virginie Pinel, Yajing Yan   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes [PDF]

Nature Communications
Seismic data recorded before volcanic eruptions provides important clues for forecasting. However, limited monitoring histories and infrequent eruptions restrict the data available for training forecasting models.
Alberto Ardid, David Dempsey, Corentin Caudron, Shane Cronin, Ben Kennedy, Társilo Girona, Diana Roman, Craig Miller, Sally Potter, Oliver D. Lamb, Anto Martanto, Yesim Cubuk-Sabuncu, Leoncio Cabrera, Sergio Ruiz, Rodrigo Contreras, Javier Pacheco, Mauricio M. Mora, Silvio De Angelis   +17 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Probabilistic enhancement of the Failure Forecast Method using a stochastic differential equation and application to volcanic eruption forecasts

, 2018
We introduce a doubly stochastic method for performing material failure theory based forecasts of volcanic eruptions. The method enhances the well known Failure Forecast Method equation, introducing a new formulation similar to the Hull-White model in ...
Bevilacqua, Andrea, Bursik, Marcus, Neri, Augusto, Patra, Abani, Pitman, E. Bruce, Voight, Barry   +5 more
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Anticipating volcanic eruptions using rescaled range analysis of volcano-tectonic seismicity [PDF]

Scientific Reports
The possibility of forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a major challenge for the volcanological scientific community. To date, various techniques based on volcano-tectonic seismicity, endogenous gas emission and satellite imagery have been widely ...
Pérez-López Raúl, Guardiola-Albert Carolina, Felpeto Alicia, Sanz-Mangas David, Méndez-Chazarra Nahum, Abella Rafael, Rodríguez-Pascua Miguel A., López-Gutiérrez Julio   +7 more
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Understanding and forecasting sudden explosive eruptions. [PDF]

Bull Volcanol
Abstract Explosive eruptions of VEI ≤ 3 commonly occur with few warning signs. Such eruptions can be magmatic, phreatomagmatic, or phreatic in nature, and they are driven by the catastrophic release of pressurized gas. Our challenge is how to better forecast these eruptions and better understand them with existing and new tools.
Stix J, de Moor JM, Aiuppa A.
europepmc   +3 more sources

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise [PDF]

Nature Geoscience, 2007
During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative
A Grêt, A Nercessian, A Peltier, A Peltier, A Ratdomopurbo, Alexandre Nercessian, B Chouet, B Chouet, B Voight, C Sens-Schönfelder, D Massonnet, D Patanè, D Patanè, F Brenguier, Florent Brenguier, G Poupinet, J Battaglia, KG Sabra, KG Sabra, KG Sabra, L Stehly, L Stieltjes, M Campillo, M Campillo, Michel Campillo, N Shapiro, Nikolai M. Shapiro, NM Shapiro, Olivier Coutant, P McLeod, R Snieder, RL Weaver, S Tait, SR Pride, U Wegler, Valérie Ferrazzini, Zacharie Duputel   +36 more
core   +6 more sources