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Intra‐Eruption Forecasting Using Analogue Volcano and Eruption Sets [PDF]
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2022 AbstractForecasting the likely style and chronology of activity within an eruption is a complex issue that has received far less attention than forecasting the onset and/or the magnitude. By developing a global data set of coded phases (discrete styles of activity within previous eruptions), we can model the resulting data using a semi‐Markov chain ...
Mark Bebbington, Susanna F. Jenkins
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Nature Geoscience, 2008 Florent Brenguier, Valerie Ferrazzini and their colleagues braved tropical cyclones and crater collapses while recording continuous seismological data on the Piton de la Foumaise volcano.
Brenguier, F., Ferrazzini, V.
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Volcanic Precursor Revealed by Machine Learning Offers New Eruption Forecasting Capability [PDF]
Geophysical Research LettersSeismicity at active volcanoes provides crucial constraints on the dynamics of magma systems and complex fault activation processes preceding and during an eruption.
Kaiwen Wang +6 more
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A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting [PDF]
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021 The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that
W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, T. H. Jordan
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Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2017 In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques ...
M. Grace Bato +2 more
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Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes [PDF]
Nature CommunicationsSeismic data recorded before volcanic eruptions provides important clues for forecasting. However, limited monitoring histories and infrequent eruptions restrict the data available for training forecasting models.
Alberto Ardid +17 more
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Hidden patterns in volcanic seismicity: deep learning insights from Mt. Etna’s 2020–2021 activity [PDF]
Scientific ReportsUnderstanding the temporal evolution of volcanic activity is crucial for eruption forecasting and hazard assessment. We use an unsupervised machine learning method, Deep Embedded Clustering, to classify daily seismic spectrograms of Mount Etna between ...
Waed Abed +9 more
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Understanding and forecasting sudden explosive eruptions. [PDF]
Bull VolcanolAbstract Explosive eruptions of VEI ≤ 3 commonly occur with few warning signs. Such eruptions can be magmatic, phreatomagmatic, or phreatic in nature, and they are driven by the catastrophic release of pressurized gas. Our challenge is how to better forecast these eruptions and better understand them with existing and new tools.
Stix J, de Moor JM, Aiuppa A.
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Anticipating volcanic eruptions using rescaled range analysis of volcano-tectonic seismicity [PDF]
Scientific ReportsThe possibility of forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a major challenge for the volcanological scientific community. To date, various techniques based on volcano-tectonic seismicity, endogenous gas emission and satellite imagery have been widely ...
Raúl Pérez-López +7 more
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Probabilistic, Multi‐Sensor Eruption Forecasting
Geophysical Research LettersWe developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple sensors or data streams with the Bayesian network method. The model generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient against sensor outage.
Y. Behr, A. Christophersen, C. Miller
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