Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading. [PDF]
Nat Commun, 2021 Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to outline the impact of bias-correction on skill.
Risbey JS +11 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Forecasting in the face of ecological complexity: Number and strength of species interactions determine forecast skill in ecological communities. [PDF]
Ecol Lett, 2022 The potential for forecasting the dynamics of ecological systems is currently unclear, with contrasting opinions regarding its feasibility due to ecological complexity.
Daugaard U +4 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Forecast Skill of the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2022
Geophysical Research Letters, 2023 We assess the skill of forecasts of Arctic September sea ice in the Sea Ice Outlook over 2008–2022. The multi‐model median June initialized forecast of September sea ice extent (SIE) is slightly more skilled (RMSE = 0.48 million km2) than a damped ...
Edward Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth +6 more
doaj +2 more sources
Benchmark decadal forecast skill for terrestrial water storage estimated by an elasticity framework. [PDF]
Nat Commun, 2019 A reliable decadal prediction of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is critical for a sustainable management of freshwater resources and infrastructures. However, the dependence of TWS forecast skill on the accuracy of initial hydrological conditions and ...
Zhu E, Yuan X, Wood AW.
europepmc +2 more sources
A method to improve binary forecast skill verification [PDF]
MethodsXTo overcome the limitations of existing deterministic binary forecast skill verification methods that award a perfect score for forecasting events considered easy to forecast, an improvement factor is introduced.
Thitithep Sitthiyot, Kanyarat Holasut
doaj +2 more sources
Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia. [PDF]
Clim Dyn, 2019 Systematic error and forecast skill for temperature and precipitation in two regions of Southern Asia are investigated using hindcasts initialized May 1 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
Cash BA, Manganello JV, Kinter JL.
europepmc +2 more sources
CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States [PDF]
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017 This paper explored the potential of a global climate model for sub-seasonal forecasting of precipitation and 2 m air temperature. The categorical forecast skill of 10 precipitation and temperature indices was investigated using the 28-year sub-seasonal ...
D. Tian, E. F. Wood, X. Yuan
doaj +2 more sources
Geophysical Research Letters, 2019 Retrospective tropical Indo‐Pacific forecasts for 1961–2015 are made using 28 models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) plus four models from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME), using a model‐analog ...
Hui Ding +3 more
doaj +2 more sources
Improved sub-seasonal meteorological forecast skill using weighted multi-model ensemble simulations
Environmental Research Letters, 2016 Sub-seasonal to seasonal weather and hydrological forecasts have the potential to provide vital information for a variety of water-related decision makers.
Niko Wanders, Eric F Wood
doaj +2 more sources
To Identify the Forecast Skill Windows of MJO Based on the S2S Database
Geophysical Research LettersAs a practical reflection of the opportunity window of Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), there are intermittent periods of relatively high forecasting skills, namely the forecast skill windows.
Xiaolei Liu +3 more
doaj +2 more sources