Results 11 to 20 of about 3,761,012 (326)
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe [PDF]
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2023 Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. Of particular interest is the subseasonal-to-seasonal
P. Rivoire +8 more
doaj +7 more sources
Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: understanding the role of initial hydrologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill [PDF]
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011 Seasonal hydrologic forecasts derive their skill from knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions and climate forecast skill associated with seasonal climate outlooks. Depending on the type of hydrological regime and the season, the relative contributions
S. Shukla, D. P. Lettenmaier
doaj +5 more sources
, 2023 Abstract This chapter reviews the progress in numerical weather prediction, introduces the forecast skill diagram and the concept of the forecast skill horizon, and discusses predictability issues. More specifically, it addresses the following questions: (1) Are weather forecasts more accurate and reliable today than in the past?
Roberto Buizza
openaire +2 more sources
On the Prediction of Forecast Skill
Monthly Weather Review, 1988 Abstract Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, is apparently more skillful if the anomaly correlation coefficient, rather than RMS difference, is
Palmer, T, Tibaldi, S
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Mediterranean Forecasting System: forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores [PDF]
Ocean Science, 2009 Abstract. This paper describes the first evaluation of the quality of the forecast and analyses produced at the basin scale by the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System (MFS) (http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs). The system produces short-term ocean forecasts for the following ten days. Analyses are produced weekly using a daily assimilation cycle.
Tonani M +7 more
core +14 more sources
Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations [PDF]
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017 Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be ...
S. W. D. Turner +5 more
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Historical perspective: earlier ensembles and forecasting forecast skill [PDF]
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019 The history of ensemble forecasting is briefly reviewed, including the pioneering approaches of stochastic dynamical forecasting (Epstein, 1969, Tellus, 21, 739–759), Monte‐Carlo forecasting (Leith, 1974b, Monthly Weather Review, 102, 409–418), Lagged ...
E. Kalnay
semanticscholar +2 more sources
A Real-Time Scheme for the Prediction of Forecast Skill
Monthly Weather Review, 1991 Abstract During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors including consistency between consecutive forecasts, amplitude of very short-range forecast errors, and ...
Molteni, F, Palmer, T
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Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century. [PDF]
Geophys Res Lett, 2022 In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of ENSO, a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901 – 2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of
Weisheimer A +6 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations [PDF]
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2023 An ensemble of forecast flood inundation maps has the potential to represent the uncertainty in the flood forecast and provide a location-specific likelihood of flooding. Ensemble flood map forecasts provide probabilistic information to flood forecasters,
H. Hooker +6 more
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