Results 31 to 40 of about 3,761,012 (326)
Skill assessment of ECV/EOV from seasonal forecast [PDF]
, 2022 Assess the seasonal forecast skill of selected ocean variables - SST, OHC300m, and SSH - from the ensemble of ECMWF and CMCC seasonal forecasts systems contributing to ...
Balmaseda, Magdalena A. +5 more
core +1 more source
Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts [PDF]
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2014 Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models.
Leonard A. Smith +3 more
openaire +4 more sources
Expert linear pool forecast skill.
, 2022 The forecast skill percentile of linear pool predictions compared to individual expert predictions across all 13 surveys (vertical axis) differentiated by the type of target.
Nicholas G. Reich (7962266) +1 more
core +1 more source
Forecast families: a new method to systematically evaluate the benefits of improving the skill of an existing forecast [PDF]
, 2023 A growing number of studies have investigated how forecast skill, i.e., predictive power, translates into forecast value, i.e., usefulness, for improving forecast-informed decisions.
Peñuela, A. +9 more
core +1 more source
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2020 Meteorologists in the energy industry increasingly draw upon the potential for enhanced sub‐seasonal predictability of European surface weather following anomalous states of the winter stratospheric polar vortex (SPV).
D. Büeler +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble [PDF]
Geoscientific Model Development, 2016 Abstract. The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale – Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is ...
Theresa Schellander-Gorgas +5 more
openaire +3 more sources
Seasonal Forecast Skill of ENSO Teleconnection Maps
Weather and forecasting, 2020 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of seasonal climate predictability. This study quantifies the historical impact of ENSO on seasonal precipitation through an update of the global ENSO teleconnection maps of Mason and Goddard ...
N. Lenssen, L. Goddard, S. Mason
semanticscholar +1 more source
Recent Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude medium-range deterministic forecast skill [PDF]
Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2012 A multi-model archive of global deterministic forecasts and analyses from three operational systems is constructed to analyse recent Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude forecast skill from 2007 to 2012 and its relation to large-scale atmospheric flow ...
Rolf H. Langland, Ryan N. Maue
doaj +1 more source
Atmosphere, 2023 GloSea5, a seasonal forecast system of the UK Met Office, shows reasonable skill among state-of-the-art operational seasonal forecast systems. However, the average surface temperature (T2m) in winter (December–February) of GloSea5 is particularly low in ...
Yejin Lee +4 more
doaj +1 more source
Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
Atmosphere, 2021 Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and
Sara Miller +6 more
doaj +1 more source