Results 1 to 10 of about 392,820 (275)
Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: an extension of the Lee-Carter method. [PDF]
Demography, 2005 Abstract Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human
Li N, Lee R.
europepmc +7 more sources
Mortality Forecasting with the Lee-Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity. [PDF]
Eur J Popul, 2021 Reliable mortality forecasts are an essential component of healthcare policies in ageing societies. The Lee-Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted probabilistic approaches to mortality forecasting, due to their simplicity and the straightforward interpretation of the model parameters.
Rabbi AMF, Mazzuco S.
europepmc +7 more sources
Examining structural shifts in mortality using the Lee-Carter method [PDF]
, 2001 We present an extension of the Lee-Carter method of modeling mortality to examine structural shifts in trajectories of mortality. Austrian data consisting of 53 years of single-age mortality rates are subdivided into 30 24-year submatrices. Using singular value decomposition, the submatrices are decomposed into three component submatrices: 1) the ...
Lawrence R. Carter, Alexia Prskawetz
core +5 more sources
Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method [PDF]
Demography, 2015 AbstractIn this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model.
Arkadiusz Wiśniowski +4 more
exaly +8 more sources
Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality [PDF]
Demography, 2001 Abstract Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC tended to underproject gains, but by less than did Social Security.
Ronald Lee, Timothy M. Miller
exaly +6 more sources
Extending the Lee-carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections. [PDF]
Demography, 2013 Abstract In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, a phenomenon we call “rotation.” We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies.
Li N, Lee R, Gerland P.
europepmc +7 more sources
DemografieThis article discusses the use of the Lee-Carter model, one of the most widely used methods for mortality forecasting. It also discusses its modified versions, namely the cohort and coherent variants, which were developed to improve the forecast accuracy
David Morávek
doaj +3 more sources
Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Peruvian Population
Selecciones Matemáticas, 2021 In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been used by many authors for fitting and forecasting the human mortality rates.
J. Hernández, Anna Sikov
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Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality
International Journal of Forecasting, 2022 The introduction of the Lee-Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method has the merit of capturing the dynamics of mortality change by a single time index that is invariably linear.
Ugofilippo Basellini +2 more
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Forecasting Indonesian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter model and ANFIS method [PDF]
AIP Conference Proceedings, 2018 If information about the mortality rate for some future periods can be obtained in the present time then the financial planning and policy to be taken are expected to be better and directed. The model used to calculate the mortality rate in this paper is the Lee-Carter model. There are three parameters of the model, that is ax, bx and kt.
J. M. Manulang +2 more
openalex +3 more sources