Results 11 to 20 of about 392,820 (275)
Using the Lee–Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data*
International Statistical Review, 2004 Summary The Lee–Carter method for modeling and forecasting mortality has been shown to work quite well given long time series of data. Here we consider how it can be used when there are few observations at uneven intervals. Assuming that the underlying model is correct and that the mortality index follows a random walk with drift, we find the method ...
Nan Li, Ronald Lee, Shripad Tuljapurkar
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Sensitivity of Selected Method of Estimation Based on the Lee-carter Model
Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 2022 Efficiency and the unbiasedness structure of three method of estimation namely: the Weighted Least Square, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Method of Moment were examined in this study. Using three scenarios labelled as Case I, II & III; where Case I is model simulation based on the distributional properties of the Lee Carter model, Case II ...
Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin +1 more
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Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Lee-Carter method [PDF]
AIP Conference Proceedings, 2016 The population of many countries might undergo dramatic changes in the coming decades due to continuous increases in life expectancy. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure ...
Nuraini Ngataman +2 more
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Forecasting Cohort Mortality: Lee–Carter Methods and CCP-Splines
Accurate mortality forecasts are central to policy, insurance, and demographic research. Yet most existing approaches rely on age–period models, limiting their ability to capture the real experiences of birth cohorts. We address this gap by developing and evaluating new models for cohort mortality forecasting.
Ugofilippo Basellini +1 more
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Forecasting Hungarian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter method [PDF]
Acta Oeconomica, 2007 A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003.
S. Baran +3 more
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Long-Term Sales Forecasting Using Lee-Carter And Holt-Winters Methods
Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2011 <p style="text-justify: inter-cluster; text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; background: white; mso-pagination: none;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">This study developed a statistical model for
Wassana Suwanvijit +3 more
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A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality
Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence, 2015 Human mortality modeling and forecasting are important study fields since mortality rates are essential in financial and social policy making. Among many others, Lee Carter (LC) model is one of the most popular stochastic method in mortality forecasting.
Duygun Fatih Demirel, Melek Basak
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Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 2012 En este trabajo se aplica el método de Lee-Carter para proyectar la mortalidad de México. Dicho método supone una relación lineal entre el logaritmo natural de las tasas centrales de mortalidad y la edad y el tiempo; una de sus ventajas es que es parsimonioso, pues combina un modelo demográfico con pocos supuestos con el análisis de series de tiempo ...
Vı́ctor M. Guerrero +1 more
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All-cause health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi Province, China, 2000–2030: systematic estimation and analysis [PDF]
Preventive Medicine ReportsObjectives: Using Jiangxi Province as a case study, this research aims to evaluate the progress in achieving the national “Healthy China 2030” all-cause health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) targets at the subnational level. Methods: Based on provincial
Jing Ding +5 more
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A rejoinder to “Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality” [PDF]
International Journal of Forecasting, 2023 Steven Haberman
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