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The burden of diabetes nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021, with forecast to 2036: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021. [PDF]
Wang Y, Wu J, He H, Yang Q, Shen H.
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The disease burden of cancer attributable to smoking worldwide from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021. [PDF]
Wei ZL +7 more
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Bayesian mortality forecasting with overdispersion
Wong, Jackie, Forster, Jon, Smith, Peter
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Mortality forecasting using stacked regression ensembles
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2021There are many alternative approaches to selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality. The standard practice is to produce forecasts using a single model such as the Lee-Carter, the Cairns-Blake-Dowd, or the Age- Period-Cohort model, with model selection based on in-sample goodness of fit measures.
Salvatory R. Kessy +3 more
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Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates
European Journal of Population, 2021The Lee-Carter (LC) model represents a landmark paper in mortality forecasting. While having been widely accepted and adopted, the model has some limitations that hinder its performance. Some variants of the model have been proposed to deal with these drawbacks individually, none coped with them all at the same time.
Carlo G. Camarda, Ugofilippo Basellini
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Modeling and forecasting mortality rates
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2011zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Mitchell, Daniel +3 more
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The Milbank Quarterly, 1988
Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors ...
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Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors ...
openaire +2 more sources

