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Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction [PDF]
Genus, 2018 Mortality forecasts are essential for predicting the future extent of population ageing, and for determining the sustainability of pension schemes and social security systems. They are also useful in setting life insurance premiums, and in helping governments plan for the changing needs of their societies for health care and other services (European ...
Janssen F.
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Stochastic mortality forecasts for Bangladesh
PLOS ONE, 2022 Mortality forecasts are essential part for policymaking in any aging society. In recent years, methods to model and forecast mortality have improved considerably. Among them, Lee-Carter method is one of the most influential method. In this paper, Lee-Carter method is applied to forecast mortality and life expectancy of Bangladesh.
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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Identification and Forecasting in Mortality Models [PDF]
The Scientific World Journal, 2014 Mortality models often have inbuilt identification issues challenging the statistician. The statistician can choose to work with well-defined freely varying parameters, derived as maximal invariants in this paper, or with ad hoc identified parameters which at first glance seem more intuitive, but which can introduce a number of unnecessary challenges ...
Bent Nielsen, Jens P. Nielsen
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Accounting for smoking in forecasting mortality and life expectancy [PDF]
The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2021 Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex differences in mortality.
Li, Yicheng, Raftery, Adrian E.
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Lee–Carter Mortality Forecasting
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, 2012 In this paper, we focus on Lee–Carter mortality forecasting. Model residuals and future mortality trendsare explored. Predictions of the force of mortality for France, Belarus and Lithuania are provided and compared. Severalmodifications of the model are applied to Lithuanian mortality data in order to obtain the most precise forecast.
Ignatavičiūtė, Eglė +2 more
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Modelling and forecasting mortality in Spain
European Journal of Operational Research, 2008 [EN] Experience shows that static life tables overestimate death probabilities. As a consequence of this overestimation the premiums for annuities, pensions and life insurance are not what they actually should be, with negative effects for insurance companies or policy-holders.
Ana Debón +2 more
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ARMA Models for Mortality Forecast
Lietuvos statistikos darbai, 2016 In the last several decades, many countries have been paying a lot of attention to mortality forecastingbecause of high longevity risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze mortality characteristics of Baltic countries andmake predictions using ARMA models.
Šiškina, Natalja, Šiaulys, Jonas
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Forecasting and simulating mortality tables
Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2009 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
N. Miklós Arató +3 more
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Mortality and life expectancy forecast for (comparatively) high mortality countries [PDF]
Genus, 2018 The Lee-Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted extrapolative methods for forecasting mortality and life expectancy in industrial countries due to their simplicity and availability of high quality long time series data.We compared and contrasted mortality forecasting models for higher mortality regimes that lack long time series data ...
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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Forecasting Neonatal Mortality in Portugal
ITISE 2023, 2023 In order to achieve a more efficient allocation of healthcare resources in the near future, it is crucial to understand the patterns and causes of excess mortality and hospitalizations. Neonatal mortality still poses a significant challenge, particularly in developed nations where the mortality rates are already low and healthcare resources are ...
Rodrigo B. Ventura +7 more
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