Results 1 to 10 of about 15,501 (117)

Evaluation of Lee–Carter model to breast cancer mortality prediction in China and Pakistan [PDF]

Frontiers in Oncology, 2023
BackgroundPrecise breast cancer–related mortality forecasts are required for public health program and healthcare service planning. A number of stochastic model–based approaches for predicting mortality have been developed.
Sumaira Mubarik, Fang Wang, Lisha Luo, Kamal Hezam, Chuanhua Yu   +4 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Is Excess Mortality Returning to Pre-Pandemic Levels? A Multi-Model Stochastic Approach for COVID-19: The Spanish Case [PDF]

Epidemiologia
Introduction: This study quantifies excess mortality in Spain during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and assesses whether mortality levels are returning to pre-pandemic patterns.
Julio Ibáñez-Soriano, Francisco G. Morillas-Jurado   +1 more
doaj   +2 more sources

The Usage of State Space Models in Mortality Modeling and Predictions [PDF]

Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal, 2023
In demography, mortality modeling with respect to age and time dimensions is often associated with the traditionally used Lee-Carter model. The Lee-Carter model considers a constant set of parameters of agespecific mortality change for forecasts, which ...
Martin Matějka, Ivana Malá
doaj   +1 more source

Comparative Study of Lee Carter and Arch Model in Modelling Female Mortality in Nigeria

UMYU Scientifica Journal, 2022
Using Nigeria mortality data from 2009 to 2020, this study compares and contrasts how well the Lee-Carter and ARCH models performed. Singular value decomposition (SVD) method, Langrage multiplier test, and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity ...
Aliyu Umar Shelleng, Yahaya Jamil Sule, Jibrin Yahaya Kajuru, Adamu Kabiru   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

Should Selection of the Optimum Stochastic Mortality Model Be Based on the Original or the Logarithmic Scale of the Mortality Rate?

Risks, 2023
Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, it is apparent that the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models—in terms, that is,
Miguel Santolino
doaj   +1 more source

Comparative Study of Mortality Rate Prediction Using Data-Driven Recurrent Neural Networks and the Lee–Carter Model

Big Data and Cognitive Computing, 2022
The Lee–Carter model could be considered as one of the most important mortality prediction models among stochastic models in the field of mortality.
Yuan Chen, Abdul Q. M. Khaliq
doaj   +1 more source

A New Fourier Approach under the Lee-Carter Model for Incorporating Time-Varying Age Patterns of Structural Changes

Risks, 2022
The prediction of future mortality improvements is of substantial importance for areas such as population projection, government welfare policies, pension planning and annuity pricing.
Sixian Tang, Jackie Li, Leonie Tickle
doaj   +1 more source

Longevity risk—Its financial impact on pensions

Scientific African, 2022
We study the financial impact of longevity risk on defined benefit (DB) pension plan liabilities using the 2010 Ghana population census, and the Lee-Carter model. We compare the usual Lee-Carter model to an extended version. While we observe that Ghana’s
Nana Poku Appiagyei Nantwi, Anani Lotsi, Godwin Debrah   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Mortality projection using two probabilistic models. Applications and limitations. [PDF]

Población y Desarrollo, 2020
This paper is focused on Lee-Carter Model and Functional Data Model, both of which were de veloped in the field of Statistics. These models are applied in order to carry out the projection of mortality and life expectancies at birth on three departments ...
Lucía Andreozzi
doaj   +2 more sources

A Preliminary Investigation of a Single Shock Impact on Italian Mortality Rates Using STMF Data: A Case Study of COVID-19

Data, 2023
Mortality shocks, such as pandemics, threaten the consolidated longevity improvements, confirmed in the last decades for the majority of western countries.
Maria Francesca Carfora, Albina Orlando
doaj   +1 more source