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Modelling French and Portuguese Mortality Rates with Stochastic Differential Equation Models: A Comparative Study

open access: yesMathematics, 2023
In recent times, there has been a notable global phenomenon characterized by a double predicament arising from the concomitant rise in worldwide life expectancy and a significant decrease in birth rates.
Daniel dos Santos Baptista   +1 more
doaj   +3 more sources

Should Selection of the Optimum Stochastic Mortality Model Be Based on the Original or the Logarithmic Scale of the Mortality Rate?

open access: yesRisks, 2023
Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, it is apparent that the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models—in terms, that is,
Miguel Santolino
doaj   +3 more sources

StMoMo: An R Package for Stochastic Mortality Modeling [PDF]

open access: yesJournal of Statistical Software, 2018
In this paper we mirror the framework of generalized (non-)linear models to define the family of generalized age-period-cohort stochastic mortality models which encompasses the vast majority of stochastic mortality projection models proposed to date ...
Andrés M. Villegas   +2 more
doaj   +6 more sources

Predicting Human Mortality: Quantitative Evaluation of Four Stochastic Models

open access: yesRisks, 2016
In this paper, we quantitatively compare the forecasts from four different mortality models. We consider one discrete-time model proposed by Lee and Carter (1992) and three continuous-time models: the Wills and Sherris (2011) model, the Feller process ...
Anastasia Novokreshchenova
doaj   +3 more sources

Debilitation's aftermath: Stochastic process models of mortality [PDF]

open access: yesMathematical Population Studies, 1988
A stochastic differential equation model is developed to clarify the interaction of debilitation, recuperation, selection, and aging. The model yields various insights about the lingering mortality consequences of disasters such as wars, famines, and epidemics that may weaken the survivors.
James Vaupel   +2 more
exaly   +7 more sources

An Empirical Study on Stochastic Mortality Modelling under the Age-Period-Cohort Framework: The Case of Greece with Applications to Insurance Pricing

open access: yesRisks, 2018
During the last decades, life expectancy has risen significantly in the most developed countries all over the world. Greece is a case in point; consequently, higher governmental financial responsibilities occur as well as serious concerns are raised ...
Apostolos Bozikas, Georgios Pitselis
doaj   +3 more sources

Gaussian and Affine Approximation of Stochastic Diffusion Models for Interest and Mortality Rates

open access: yesRisks, 2013
In the actuarial literature, it has become common practice to model future capital returns and mortality rates stochastically in order to capture market risk and forecasting risk. Although interest rates often should and mortality rates always have to be
Marcus C. Christiansen
doaj   +3 more sources

Generalization of stochastic mortality models to improve mortality prediction in life insurance and pension funds [PDF]

open access: yesتصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات, 2023
Purpose: Mortality is a dynamic process that completes over time and is a fundamental issue in life insurance, pension fund, health insurance, and in general any issue related to financial planning that deals with the longevity of individuals. Therefore,
Shirin Shoaee   +1 more
doaj   +1 more source

Modelling Stochastic Bivariate Mortality [PDF]

open access: yesSSRN Electronic Journal, 2006
Stochastic mortality, i.e. modelling death arrival via a jump process with stochastic intensity, is gaining increasing reputation as a way to represent mortality risk. This paper represents a first attempt to model the mortality risk of couples of individuals, according to the stochastic intensity approach.\ud \ud On the theoretical side, we extend to ...
Luciano, E., Spreeuw, J., Vigna, E.
openaire   +2 more sources

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