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A Model of Overconfidence [PDF]
AbstractPeople use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging.
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Financial Management, 2015
AbstractWe examine overconfident chief executive officer (CEO) directors and find they attend more board meetings, are more likely to serve on the nominating or the compensation committee, have more independent directorships, and foster higher attendance rates on boards.
Beavers, Randy, Mobbs, Shawn
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AbstractWe examine overconfident chief executive officer (CEO) directors and find they attend more board meetings, are more likely to serve on the nominating or the compensation committee, have more independent directorships, and foster higher attendance rates on boards.
Beavers, Randy, Mobbs, Shawn
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Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach [PDF]
A positive relation between overconfidence and investment provision has been theoretically justified and practically assumed in the literature, but has not been thoroughly investigated. We test and confirm this positive relation between direct measures of overconfidence in one's financial knowledge and choice of investment.
Philippe N Tobler +2 more
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Overconfidence, Optimism and Entrepreneurship [PDF]
Overconfidence is one of the alleged drivers for market entry. However, establishing its effect is challenging and much of the existing entrepreneurship literature confusingly conflates overconfidence with optimism. In the present study, we use validated
Adriaan R. Thurik +2 more
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Review of Financial Studies, 1997
We develop a multiperiod market model describing both the process by which traders learn about their ability and how a bias in this learning can create overconfident traders. A trader in our model initially does not know his own ability. He infers this ability from his successes and failures.
Simon Gervais, Terrance Odean
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We develop a multiperiod market model describing both the process by which traders learn about their ability and how a bias in this learning can create overconfident traders. A trader in our model initially does not know his own ability. He infers this ability from his successes and failures.
Simon Gervais, Terrance Odean
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Academy of Management Proceedings, 2007
We study three distinct measures of overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's performance, (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (3) overprecision in one's belief about private signals. A new set of experiments verifies a strong negative link between overestimation and overprecision that depends crucially on task difficulty ...
Healy, Paul J., Moore, Don A.
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We study three distinct measures of overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's performance, (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (3) overprecision in one's belief about private signals. A new set of experiments verifies a strong negative link between overestimation and overprecision that depends crucially on task difficulty ...
Healy, Paul J., Moore, Don A.
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Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2017
Previous experimental work has shown that individuals make suboptimal decisions in newsvendor problems.
Yufei Ren +2 more
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Previous experimental work has shown that individuals make suboptimal decisions in newsvendor problems.
Yufei Ren +2 more
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Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better than average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average effect is problematic.
Benoît, Jean-Pierre, Dubra, Juan
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