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Overconfidence in Predictions as an Effect of Desirability Bias
2008Most people hold unrealistic positive beliefs about their personal skills, their knowledge (Fischoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977), and their possibilities to overcome the performance of other individuals (Weinstein, 1980). This general tendency, called overconfidence, is a stable and pervasive finding both in many real-life domains and in several ...
Giardini F +3 more
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Overconfidence Bias in International Stock Prices
The Journal of Portfolio Management, 2003This study expands tests of the overconfidence hypothesis to international markets, where the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that stock prices the world around are also biased by investor overconfidence. A novel aspect of the test here is combination of the overconfidence hypothesis with valuation theory.
James Scott, Margaret Stumpp, Peter Xu
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Self-Attribution Bias and Overconfidence Among Nonprofessional Traders
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017Abstract We investigate consequences of the self-attribution bias for nonprofessional traders. By applying a textual analysis of more than 44,000 public comments on a large social trading platform, we contribute to empirical literature on investment and trading behavior in three ways: First, we show that one component of the self-attribution bias ...
Daniel Czaja, Florian Röder
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Peer-review: Overconfidence bias in a conference setting
2013 10th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, 2013The present study examines whether overconfidence bias is moderated by the type of manuscript submitted to conferences. The preliminary results suggest that the type of manuscript reviewed by the reviewer, either work in progress or completed work, makes overconfidence bias in peer-reviews of conference papers more or less visible due to potential bias
Enar Ruiz-Conde +2 more
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Determinants of overconfidence bias in Indian stock market
Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 2018Purpose The purpose of this paper is to conduct an exploratory analysis of the demographic factors and investors’ characteristics, which cause changes in the extent of overconfidence level and its constituents among the individuals. Design/methodology/approach A survey has been conducted to explore the determinants of overconfidence and its ...
Priya Kansal, Seema Singh
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Bias and Overconfidence in Parametric Models of Interactive Processes*
American Journal of Political Science, 2015We assess the ability of logit, probit and numerous other parametric models to test a hypothesis that two variables interact in influencing the probability that some event will occur [Pr(Y)] in what we believe is a very common situation: when one's theory is insufficiently strong to dictate a specific functional form for the data generating process ...
William D. Berry +2 more
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Peer‐comparison overconfidence: Does it measure bias in self‐evaluation?
PsyCh Journal, 2012AbstractOverconfidence is generally regarded as one of the most robust findings in the psychology of judgment. A precise method for evaluating overconfidence is essential if researchers are to validate these findings. Although peer‐comparison questions are a convenient tool for measuring overconfidence, their validity has been questioned. We employed a
Yan-Ling, Bi, Xue-Lei, Du, Shu, Li
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The Effect of Uncertainty Indexes on the Overconfidence Bias of Bitcoin
Annals of Financial EconomicsThis paper investigates the impact of uncertainty on investor overconfidence in the Bitcoin market. While prior studies mainly focus on returns and volatility, limited attention has been paid to behavioral responses. Using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and monthly data from June 2011 to August 2022, we examine the asymmetric ...
Manel Mahjoubi, Jamel Eddine Henchiri
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The Impact Of Self-attribution Bias and Overconfidence Bias on Perceived Market Efficiency
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019This study examines the mechanism by which self-attribution bias and overconfidence bias influences perceived market efficiency. For this purpose we use questionnaire and collect data from 200 investors of Islamabad Stock Exchange (ISE). Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investor’s behavior in less ...
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Business Management Research
The purpose of this study is to analyze investor behavior influenced by herding bias, overconfidence bias, and cognitive dissonance bias on investment decision making. Investors were given a questionnaire as part of the quantitative data collection for this study.
Dalilah El Zahro, Mohamad Nur Singgih
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The purpose of this study is to analyze investor behavior influenced by herding bias, overconfidence bias, and cognitive dissonance bias on investment decision making. Investors were given a questionnaire as part of the quantitative data collection for this study.
Dalilah El Zahro, Mohamad Nur Singgih
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