Results 131 to 135 of about 818 (135)

Overprecise forecasts

Review of Accounting Studies, 2022
Yi Dong, Xuejiao Liu, Gerald J. Lobo, Chenkai Ni   +3 more
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Assumptions, Disagreement, and Overprecision: Theory and Evidence

Constructing beliefs about the world often requires simplifying assumptions. However, it is often cognitively costly or even impossible to consider how all possible assumptions might affect beliefs. We develop a formal model of individuals who properly recognize uncertainty conditional on their assumptions (“within-model uncertainty”), but do not fully
Andrew T. Little, Don A Moore, Ned Augenblick, Matthew Backus   +3 more
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Subjective Probability Interval Estimates: A Simple and Effective Way to Reduce Overprecision in Judgment

2011
Overprecision in judgment is the most robust type of overconfidence, and the one least susceptible to debiasing. It refers to people’s excessive certainty in the accuracy of their estimates, predictions or beliefs. Research on overprecision finds that confidence intervals, estimated ranges that judges are confident will include the correct answer, tend
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Don’t Get to the Point. Overprecision in Management Capital Expenditure Forecasts

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2023
Robert H. Davidson, Adam du Pon, Hari Ramasubramanian   +2 more
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Insight Meditation and Reality Alignment: The Neuroscience of Predictive Brain Processing vs. Present Moment Sensory Updating Mindfulness Helps Avoid Deep Adaptive Inference Overprecision in Cognitive Interpretive Processes by Promoting Present Moment Self-Awareness, Emotional Regulation, and De-biasing

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