Results 61 to 70 of about 953 (161)
Metaknowledge of Experts Versus Nonexperts: Do Experts Know Better What They Do and Do Not Know?
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Volume 37, Issue 2, April 2024.ABSTRACT Experts are usually valued for their knowledge. However, do they possess metaknowledge, that is, knowing how much they know as well as the limits of that knowledge? The current research examined expert metaknowledge by comparing experts' and nonexperts' confidence when they made correct versus incorrect choices as well as the difference in ...
Yuyan Han, David Dunning
wiley +1 more source
Modelling the composition of household portfolios: A latent class approach
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, Volume 57, Issue 1, Page 243-275, February / Février 2024.Abstract We explore portfolio allocation in Great Britain by introducing a latent class modelling approach using household panel data based on a nationally representative sample of the population, namely the Wealth and Assets Survey. The latent class aspect of the model splits households into four groups, from lowest‐wealth and least‐diversified ...
Raslan Alzuabi +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Overprecision in Estimates of Physical Constants
Science depends on accurate estimates—and on honest assessments of how uncertain those estimates are. This study shows that scientists often express too much confidence in their reported values of physical constants, such as the charge of an electron or the speed of light.
Don A Moore, Mitchell Chan
openaire +1 more source
What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence. [PDF]
This study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the appropriate measurement of overconfidence, in particular, its strictly incentive compatible measurement in experiments. Despite a number of significant advances in recent research, several important
Diemo Urbig, Julia Stauf, Utz Weitzel
core
Is overconfidence a social liability? The effect of verbal versus nonverbal expressions of confidence. [PDF]
, 2018 [Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 116(3) of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (see record 2019-08943-002). In the article "Is Overconfidence a Social Liability?
Anderson, Cameron +4 more
core +1 more source
Predicting Overprecision in Range Estimation
, 2016 Overprecision (overconfidence in interval estimation) is a biaswith clear implications for economic outcomes in industriesreliant on forecasting possible ranges for future prices andunknown states of nature - such as mineral and petroleumexploration. Prior research has shown the ranges peopleprovide are too narrow given the knowledge they have – thatis,
Kaesler, Matthew +2 more
openaire +1 more source
Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement [PDF]
Excess entry – or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions – is often attributed to overconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entry is an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial
Natalia Karelaia, Robin Hogarth
core
Overweighting Private Information: Three Measures, One Bias? [PDF]
Overweighting private information is often used to explain various detrimental decisions. In behavioral economics and finance, it is usually modeled as a direct consequence of misperceiving signal reliability. This bias is typically dubbed overconfidence
Gerlinde Fellner, Sebastian Krügel
core
The generalized propensity score methodology for estimating unbiased journal impact factors [PDF]
, 2018 The journal impact factor (JIF) proposed by Garfield in the year 1955 is one of the most commonly used and prominent citation-based indicators of the performance and significance of a scientific journal.
Daniel, Hans-Dieter, Mutz, Rüdiger
core
Information use in supply chain forecasting [PDF]
, 2015 Demand forecasting to support supply chain planning is a critical activity, recognized as pivotal in manufacturing and retailing operations where information is shared across functional areas to produce final detailed forecasts.
Fildes, Robert +2 more
core +1 more source