Results 41 to 50 of about 327,440 (196)

High-resolution Model for Seasonal Prediction of Surface Shortwave Radiation in China

应用气象学报, 2022
Based on the global high-resolution climate model CAMS-CSM developed by Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, the seasonal prediction skill of downward short-wave radiation flux (DSWRF) in China and three key regions is evaluated during the period ...
Liu Bo, Ma Libin, Rong Xinyao, Su Jingzhi, Yan Yuhan, Hua Lijuan, Tang Yanli   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source

Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best.

, 2002
The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of different methods of forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in areas with unstable transmission.
Abeku, Tarekegn A, Borsboom, Gerard, de Vlas, Sake J, Habbema, JDF, Kebede, Asnakew, Olana, Dereje, Teklehaimanot, Awash, van Oortmarssen, Gerrit J   +7 more
core   +1 more source

Improving Seasonal Prediction of East Asian Summer Rainfall Using NESM3.0: Preliminary Results

Atmosphere, 2018
It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluated the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and ...
Young-Min Yang, Bin Wang, Juan Li
doaj   +1 more source

Can signal-to-noise ratio indicate prediction skill? Based on skill assessment of 1-month lead prediction of monthly temperature anomaly over Japan

Frontiers in Climate, 2022
We present a skill assessment of 1-month lead deterministic predictions of monthly surface air temperature anomalies over most part of Japan based on a large-ensemble climate model, SINTEX-F.
Takeshi Doi, Masami Nonaka, Swadhin Behera   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Climate Dynamics, 2009
Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North ...
Maycock, A, Keeley, S, Charlton-Perez, A, Doblas-Reyes, F   +3 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex

Atmospheric Science Letters
The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar
Peter McLean, Chris Bulmer, Paul Davies, Nick Dunstone, Margaret Gordon, Sarah Ineson, Jason Kelly, Jamie Kettleborough, Jeff Knight, Julia Florence Lockwood, Adam A. Scaife, Doug Smith, Nicky Stringer, Brent Walker   +13 more
doaj   +1 more source

Superiority of Mega‐ENSO Index in the Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific

Earth and Space Science, 2020
In this study, we compared the performance of two potential predicators, that is, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (Niño‐3.4) and mega‐ENSO index, in the seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and its spatial distribution over the ...
Yuan Sun, Zhong Zhong, Tim Li, Lan Yi, Jian Shi, Yixuan Shen, Kefeng Liu, Yijia Hu, Zanmin Xu   +8 more
doaj   +1 more source

Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the China Meteorological Administration Climate Prediction System Version 3

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022
Based on the 20 years of ensemble hindcast data, we evaluated the performance of the new version climate prediction system developed by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA CPSv3) on the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) seasonal prediction in this ...
Xiaoyun Liang, Xiaoyun Liang, Qiaoping Li, Qiaoping Li, Tongwen Wu, Tongwen Wu   +5 more
doaj   +1 more source

The Influence of Climate Variability and Future Climate Change on Atlantic Hurricane Season Length

Geophysical Research Letters
Atlantic hurricane season length is important for emergency management preparation, motivating the need to understand its variability and change. We investigated the influence of ocean variability on Atlantic hurricane season length in observations and a
Christina M. Patricola, Grace E. Hansen, Ana C. T. Sena   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China

Environmental Research Letters, 2017
Southern China experiences large year-to-year variability in the amount of winter precipitation, which can result in severe social and economic impacts.
Bo Lu, Adam A Scaife, Nick Dunstone, Doug Smith, Hong-Li Ren, Ying Liu, Rosie Eade   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source