Results 21 to 30 of about 52,033 (260)

Predictability of Seasonal Atmospheric Variations

Journal of Climate, 1994
Results from a set of 120-day ensemble integrations of a T63L19 version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model are described. The integrations, started from observed initial conditions, used observed global sea surface temperature (SST) as a lower boundary condition.
Brankovic, C, Palmer, T, Ferranti, L
openaire   +4 more sources

Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems

Environmental Research Letters, 2020
Seasonal mean atmospheric circulation in Europe can vary substantially from year to year. This diversity of conditions impacts many socioeconomic sectors.
Llorenç Lledó, Irene Cionni, Verónica Torralba, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

Seasonal prediction and possible causes of sudden losses of sea-ice in the Weddell Sea in recent years based on potential oceanic and atmospheric factors

Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2023
The seasonal prediction of sea-ice concentration (SIC), especially sudden loss events, is always challenging. Weddell Sea SIC experienced two unprecedented decline events, falling from 2.21% in the austral winter of 2015 to 0.02% in the austral summer of
Hui-Jun Zhao, Hui-Jun Zhao, Dong Xiao, Lin-Gen Bian, Wei Wu, Hai-Wei Yang, Qi Chen, Tian Liang, Lan-Dong Sun   +8 more
doaj   +1 more source

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (S2S) project database [PDF]

, 2016
A database containing sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts from 11 operational centres is available to the research community and will help advance our understanding of the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range.\ud \ud Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range
F Vitart, C Ardilouze, A Bonet, A Brookshaw, M Chen, C Codorean, M Déqué, L Ferranti, E Fucile, M Fuentes, H Hendon, J Hodgson, HS Kang, A Kumar, H Lin, G Liu, X Liu, P Malguzzi, I Mallas, M Manoussakis, D Mastrangelo, C MacLachlan, P McLean, A Minami, R Mladek, T Nakazawa, S Najm, Y Nie, M Rixen, A W Robertson, P Ruti, C Sun, Y Takaya, M Tolstykh, F Venuti, D Waliser, S Woolnough, T Wu, DJ Won, H Xiao, R Zaripov, L Zhang   +41 more
openaire   +3 more sources

Understanding the dynamical mechanism of year-to-year incremental prediction by nonlinear time series prediction theory

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2018
Previous studies have shown that year-to-year incremental prediction (YIP) can obtain considerable skill in seasonal forecasts. This study analyzes the mathematical definition of YIP and derives its formula in the nonlinear time series prediction (NP ...
Shu-Ting Bi, Peng-Fei Wang, Xin-Nong Pan, Chao-Fan Li   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

Potential Skill Map of Predictors Applied to the Seasonal Forecast of Summer Rainfall in China

应用气象学报, 2020
Anomalous summer rainfall in China is affected by many factors, whose complex interaction restricts the predictability of Chinese summer rainfall (CSR).
Liu Boqi, Zhu Congwen
doaj   +1 more source

A perfect prognosis downscaling methodology for seasonal prediction of local-scale wind speeds

Environmental Research Letters, 2021
This work provides a new methodology based on a statistical downscaling with a perfect prognosis approach to produce seasonal predictions of near-surface wind speeds at the local scale.
Jaume Ramon, Llorenç Lledó, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models

Environmental Research Letters, 2013
Analysis of 20th century simulations of the High resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) and the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models shows that most have a cold sea-surface temperature (SST) bias in the northern Arabian Sea ...
D Marathayil, A G Turner, L C Shaffrey, R C Levine   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons

Environmental Research Communications, 2023
El Niño induces a southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) warming in decaying springs by forcing the slow-propagating downwelling oceanic Rossby waves south of the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO), which could exert a great influence on the subsequent South and East ...
Zhiyuan Zhang, Gen Li
doaj   +1 more source

Four time series prediction models for incidence prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease: a comparative study

Zhongguo gonggong weisheng, 2022
ObjectiveTo compare the performance of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Winter linear and seasonal exponential smoothing model, Census X12 seasonal decomposition model, and linear combination prediction model in incidence
Chao LIU, Yuan-yuan MENG, Qing-wen ZHANG
doaj   +1 more source