Results 251 to 260 of about 8,961,288 (283)
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Base Rate Neglect Under Ambiguity
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019Base rate neglect typically involves the underweighting of priors in a world with objective probability distributions (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). In reality, however, individuals often face scenarios with ambiguous priors, in which they have no full confidence.
Yiangyan Li, Jianying Qiu, Utz Weitzel
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Natural sampling and base-rate neglect
European Journal of Social Psychology, 1998Using an analogue of the lawyer-and-engineer item (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973), we compared conditions in which base rates were either presented as percentages (A), or frequencies (B), to conditions in which the natural sampling process was described additionally (C) or was directly experienced (D).
Tilmann Betsch +3 more
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The motivated use and neglect of base rates
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007AbstractEgo-justifying, group-justifying, and system-justifying motivations contribute to base-rate respect. People tend to neglect (and use) base rates when doing so allows them to draw desired conclusions about matters such as their health, the traits of their in-groups, and the fairness of the social system.
Eric Luis Uhlmann +2 more
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American base‐rate neglect: It is not the math, but the context
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2020AbstractWe investigate cross‐cultural disparities in focalism bias through two studies of probability estimation. Using 60 American and 60 Chinese participants, Experiment 1 yields the standard finding that Americans manifest greater focalism bias by tending to neglect background probability base‐rates and to rely more heavily on obtained samples in ...
Shali Wu, Clifton Emery
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Memory mechanisms in pigeons: Evidence of base-rate neglect.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes, 2002In delayed matching to sample, once acquired, pigeons presumably choose comparisons according to their memory for (the strength of) the sample. When memory for the sample is sufficiently weak, comparison choice should depend on the history of reinforcement associated with each of the comparison stimuli.
Thomas R, Zentall, Tricia S, Clement
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Physicians neglect base rates, and it matters
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 1996AbstractA recent study showed physicians' reasoning about a realistic case to be ignorant of base rate. It also showed physicians interpreting information pertinent to base rate differently, depending on whether it was presented early or late in the case. Although these adult reasoners might do better if given hints through talk of relative frequencies,
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Base-rate respect meets affect neglect
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007AbstractWhile improving the theoretical account of base-rate neglect, Barbey & Sloman's (B&S's) target article suffers from affect neglect by failing to consider the fundamental role of emotional processes in “real world” decisions. We illustrate how affective influences are fundamental to decision making, and discuss how the dual process model
Paul Whitney +2 more
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Base-rate neglect and coarse probability representation
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007AbstractWe believe that when assessing the likelihood of uncertain events, statistically unsophisticated people utilize a coarse internal scale that only has a limited number of categories. The success of the nested sets hypothesis may lie in its ability to provide an appropriate set structure of the problem by reducing the computational demands.
Yanlong Sun, Hongbin Wang
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Base rate neglect for the wealth of populations [PDF]
, 2006 Base rate neglect has been shown to be a very robust bias in human information processing. It has also been show to be ecologically rational in some environments. However, when arguing about base rate neglect usually isolated individuals are considered.
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