Results 21 to 30 of about 17,736 (248)
A Bayesian latent mixture model approach to assessing performance in stock-flow reasoning [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2017 People often perform poorly on stock-flow reasoning tasks, with many (but not all) participants appearing to erroneously match the accumulation of the stock to the inflow – a response pattern attributed to the use of a “correlation heuristic”. Efforts to
Arthur Kary +3 more
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A Philosophical Treatise on the Connection of Scientific Reasoning with Fuzzy Logic
Mathematics, 2020 The present article studies the connection of scientific reasoning with fuzzy logic. Induction and deduction are the two main types of human reasoning.
Evangelos Athanassopoulos +1 more
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Different Visualizations Cause Different Strategies When Dealing With Bayesian Situations
Frontiers in Psychology, 2020 People often struggle with Bayesian reasoning. However, previous research showed that people’s performance (and rationality) can be supported by the way the statistical information is represented.
Andreas Eichler +2 more
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Frontiers in Psychology, 2015 Bayesian reasoning, defined here as the updating of a posterior probability following new information, has historically been problematic for humans. Classic psychology experiments have tested human Bayesian reasoning through the use of word problems and ...
Gary L. Brase, W. Trey eHill
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CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology, 2023 The battlefield situation changes rapidly because underwater targets' are concealment and the sea environment is uncertain. So, a great number of situation information greatly increase, which need to be dealt with in the course of scouting underwater ...
Yongqin Sun +3 more
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Interactivity fosters Bayesian reasoning without instruction. [PDF]
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2015 Successful statistical reasoning emerges from a dynamic system including: a cognitive agent, material artifacts with their actions possibilities, and the thoughts and actions that are realized while reasoning takes place. Five experiments provide evidence that enabling the physical manipulation of the problem information (through the use of playing ...
Gaëlle Vallée-Tourangeau +2 more
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The impact of visualization on flexible Bayesian reasoning
Avances de Investigación en Educación Matemática, 2017 There is wide consensus that visualizations of statistical information can support Bayesian reasoning. This article focusses on the conceptual understanding of Bayesian reasoning situations and investigates whether the tree diagram or the unit square is
Katharina Böcherer-Linder +2 more
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Widening Access to Bayesian Problem Solving
Frontiers in Psychology, 2020 Bayesian reasoning and decision making is widely considered normative because it minimizes prediction error in a coherent way. However, it is often difficult to apply Bayesian principles to complex real world problems, which typically have many unknowns ...
Nicole Cruz +8 more
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BAT.jl Upgrading the Bayesian Analysis Toolkit [PDF]
EPJ Web of Conferences, 2020 In all but the simplest cases, performing data analysis based on Bayesian reasoning requires the use of advanced algorithms. The Bayesian Analysis Toolkit (BAT) provides a collection of algorithms and methods that facilitate the application of Bayesian ...
Caldwell Allen +6 more
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Bayesianism and Scientific Reasoning [PDF]
, 2022 This Element explores the Bayesian approach to the logic and epistemology of scientific reasoning. Section 1 introduces the probability calculus as an appealing generalization of classical logic for uncertain reasoning. Section 2 explores some of the vast terrain of Bayesian epistemology.
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