Results 211 to 220 of about 158,485 (298)

Polar‐low track prediction using machine‐learning methods

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Machine‐learning models are developed to produce reliable and efficient forecasts of polar‐low (PL) trajectories 12 hours ahead. A temporal model (RLSTM) benefiting from the rolling‐forecast strategy, improves overall prediction accuracy and is suitable for quick experimentation, while a spatiotemporal model (PL‐UNet), incorporating both historical and
Ziying Yang   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Near‐resonant excitation of the Adriatic barotropic modes: The seiche events of December 2019

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study examines severe flooding in the northern Adriatic Sea in December 2019, which existing forecasting systems failed to predict. Analysis of wind and sea‐level data, alongside reanalysis datasets and a high‐resolution hydrodynamic model, revealed a wind‐induced resonance mechanism.
Marco Bajo   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Towards operational assimilation of surface‐sensitive microwave radiances over land at Environment and Climate Change Canada: Investigation of key factors using a 1D‐EnVar framework

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The study evaluates five factors affecting the assimilation of surface‐sensitive Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐A (AMSU‐A) radiances over land, including the simultaneous estimation of surface emissivity and the standard set of state variables, to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
Zheng Qi Wang   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

How consistently do ensemble prediction systems represent the growth of atmospheric uncertainty?

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Spread‐based diagnostics calculated for 12 ensemble prediction systems are compared to understand the consistency with which they represent atmospheric uncertainty growth. Good correlation between all these systems is found in the extratropics for a lead time range from 48 hr to between 96 hr and 192 hr.
Douglas Wood   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Stratospheric and tropospheric seasonality and its implications for observation requirements in numerical weather prediction

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Daily time series of zonal‐mean zonal wind (m·s−1) at 10 hPa and 60° N from 1950 to 2021 from the ERA5 reanalysis. This shows huge variability in some seasons and very little in others. We provide evidence that high‐level observations, radiosonde and satellite, are more important during the extended winter season with its very large variability ...
Bruce Ingleby, Inna Polichtchouk
wiley   +1 more source

Home - About - Disclaimer - Privacy