Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies: A model averaging approach
Demographic Research, 2012 BACKGROUND Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial forpolicy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources.
Han Lin Shang
doaj
Do Different Models Induce Changes in Mortality Indicators? That Is a Key Question for Extending the Lee-Carter Model. [PDF]
Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2021 Debón A +3 more
europepmc +1 more source
Hierarchical Lee-Carter model estimation through data cloning applied to demographically linked countries [PDF]
, 2015 Some groups of countries are connected not only economically, but also social and even demographically. This last fact can be exploited when trying to forecast the death rates of their populations. In this paper we propose a hierarchical specification of
Albarrán Lozano, Irene +3 more
core +1 more source
Mathematical Models for the Longevity Risk in the Annuity Market [PDF]
The markets for longevity derivatives are starting to develop. In last years, many companies have closed the defined benefit retirement plans that they used to offer to their employees. In addition, some governments increased the retirement age by 2 or 5
Iulian MIRCEA
core
Bayesian Demographic Modeling and Forecasting: An Application to U.S. Mortality [PDF]
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extending it in several dimensions.
Samad Sarferaz, Wolfgang Reichmuth
core
Adoption of projected mortality table for the Slovenian market using the Poisson log-bilinear model to test the minimum standard for valuing life annuities [PDF]
Economic and Business Review, 2015 With the introduction of Solvency II a consistent market approach to the valuation of insurance assets and liabilities is required. For the best estimate of life annuity provisions one should estimate the longevity risk of the insured population in ...
Darko Medved +3 more
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, 2016 This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a general state ...
Fung, Man Chung +2 more
core +1 more source
A Comparison between General Population Mortality and Life Tables for Insurance in Mexico under Gender Proportion Inequality || Una comparación entre la mortalidad de la población general y las tablas de vida de los seguros en México ante porcentajes desiguales de género [PDF]
Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa, 2013 We model the mortality behavior of the general population in Mexico using data from 1990 to 2009 and compare it to the mortality assumed in the tables used in Mexico for insured lives.
Ornelas, Arelly, Guillén, Montserrat
doaj
The role of longevity risk in Hungary [PDF]
, 2016 In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using ...
Vékás, Péter
core
Research on time factor prediction in the Lee-Carter model—the combined model based on Lp-norm
Research in StatisticsFor longevity risk, this paper focuses on accurately predicting mortality rates and proposes an improved time-factor prediction model to enhance the accuracy of mortality rate forecasting.
Xueru Yang, Yue Hu, Wei Zhang, Kuan Xu
doaj +1 more source