Results 91 to 100 of about 179 (108)
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The fragility of experts: A moderated-mediation model of expertise, identity threat, & overprecision
Academy of Management Proceedings, 2021Experts play a crucial role in modern organizations, but evidence regarding the soundness and reliability of their decision-making is mixed and often contradictory.
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COGNITIVE SKILLS AND CONFIDENCE: INTERRELATIONS WITH OVERESTIMATION, OVERPLACEMENT AND OVERPRECISION
Bulletin of Economic Research, 2015ABSTRACTThis experimental study measures the three major types of judgmental overconfidence in a within‐subjects design. Performance‐based overestimation and overplacement are elicited in a Raven Progressive Matrices test for general intelligence. Calibration‐based overprecision is evaluated in a forecasting by confidence intervals task.
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Journal of Management & Organization, 2020
AbstractThis paper focuses on the effects of entrepreneurial overconfidence at new venture creation. By analyzing Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data and using the theory of planned behavior as a framework, the study provides new evidence on the relative or absolute nature of overconfidence in entrepreneurial skills and the effect of overprecision on ...
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AbstractThis paper focuses on the effects of entrepreneurial overconfidence at new venture creation. By analyzing Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data and using the theory of planned behavior as a framework, the study provides new evidence on the relative or absolute nature of overconfidence in entrepreneurial skills and the effect of overprecision on ...
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Assumptions, Disagreement, and Overprecision: Theory and Evidence
Constructing beliefs about the world often requires simplifying assumptions. However, it is often cognitively costly or even impossible to consider how all possible assumptions might affect beliefs. We develop a formal model of individuals who properly recognize uncertainty conditional on their assumptions (“within-model uncertainty”), but do not fullyAndrew T. Little +3 more
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Conversational Principles in Cognitive Biases: The Case of Overprecision in Interval Estimation
Conversational principles such as Grice’s maxim of Quantity (roughly: be informative) are essential to our ability to communicate efficiently. Due to their ubiquitous nature in language-based communication, they may interfere in a large variety of other cognitive tasks which at first glance may not seem linguistic in nature.Marie-Christine Meyer +1 more
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2011
Overprecision in judgment is the most robust type of overconfidence, and the one least susceptible to debiasing. It refers to people’s excessive certainty in the accuracy of their estimates, predictions or beliefs. Research on overprecision finds that confidence intervals, estimated ranges that judges are confident will include the correct answer, tend
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Overprecision in judgment is the most robust type of overconfidence, and the one least susceptible to debiasing. It refers to people’s excessive certainty in the accuracy of their estimates, predictions or beliefs. Research on overprecision finds that confidence intervals, estimated ranges that judges are confident will include the correct answer, tend
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Don’t Get to the Point. Overprecision in Management Capital Expenditure Forecasts
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2023Robert H. Davidson +2 more
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The Conflicting Links between Forecast-Confidence and Trading Propensity
Journal of Behavioral Finance, 2021Doron Sonsino, Yaron Lahav
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