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Using large language models to suggest informative prior distributions in Bayesian regression analysis [PDF]
Scientific ReportsSelecting prior distributions in Bayesian regression analysis is a challenging task. Even if knowledge already exists, gathering this information and translating it into informative prior distributions is both resource-demanding and difficult to perform ...
Michael A. Riegler +3 more
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Overconfidence, Underconfidence, and Welfare [PDF]
Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 2015 Using a simple framework due to Cooper and John (1988) and Cooper (1999), this paper derives the conditions under which overconfidence and underconfidence of agents lead to Pareto improvement. We show that an agents overconfidence in a game exhibiting strategic complementarity and positive spillovers and an agents underconfidence in a game exhibiting ...
Takao Asano +2 more
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Underconfidence in predicting future events [PDF]
Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 1988 In calibration research using future event questions, the mean of the confidence ratings assigned to each of a series of predictions is compared with the percentage of correct predictions. A person is said to be well calibrated if his/her mean confidence rating matches his/her percentage correct.
Hennie Vreugdenhil, Pieter Koele
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Computers and Education Open, 2021 Asking questions in classrooms can produce metacognitive judgements in students about their confidence in being able to answer correctly. In audience response systems (ARSs), these judgements can be elicited and used as additional feedback metrics.
Pantelis M. Papadopoulos +2 more
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THE ILLUSION OF NOT KNOWING IN METACOGNITIVE MONITORING: A BRIEF REVIEW
Психологічні перспективи, 2021 Purpose. The paper is aimed to analyze some key features of the illusion of not knowing in metacognitive monitoring of the learning activity of university students.
Марія Августюк
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BMJ Open, 2019 Objectives The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) previously piloted an assessment of ‘online confidence’, where candidates were asked to indicate how confident they were with their answers.
Paul A Tiffin, Lewis W Paton
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Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects
Frontiers in Psychology, 2015 Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety.
Shanna eErickson, Evan eHeit
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EXPLORING THE LINK BETWEEN FINANCIAL KNOWLEDGE, RISK AVERSION, AND INVESTMENT PREFERENCES: A EUROPEAN UNION ANALYSIS [PDF]
Financial StudiesThis paper examines the relationships between financial knowledge, risk profiles, digital competence, investment preferences, and financial behaviour across EU countries.
Răzvan UIFALEAN
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A barycenter-based approach for the multi-model ensembling of subseasonal forecasts [PDF]
Geoscientific Model DevelopmentEnsemble forecasts and their combination are examined from the perspective of probability spaces. By treating ensemble forecasts as discrete probability distributions, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts are reformulated as barycenters of these ...
C. Le Coz +3 more
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Evidence Gathering Under Competitive and Noncompetitive Rewards
Journal of Economics &Management Strategy, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Reward schemes may affect not only agents' effort but also their incentives to gather information in order to reduce the riskiness of the productive activity. In a laboratory experiment using a novel task, we find that the relationship between incentives and evidence gathering depends critically on the availability of information about peers ...
Philip Brookins +2 more
wiley +1 more source